NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9MEM

MIN

31-20

128137

MEM

19-29

NBAMon, Feb 2FinalSeriesMEM leads series 2-1VegasMIN -7.5

MIN · top performer

Jaden McDaniels

F · #3

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Jaren Jackson Jr.

F · #8

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 21pp · 1st Quarter · 2.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	40	19	5-14	1-6	8-8	+5	8	8
J. McDanielsF · #3	37	29	11-14	5-7	2-2	+2	4	3
R. GobertC · #27	25	7	3-5	—	1-2	-8	10	0
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	34	21	7-9	5-7	2-4	-3	3	4
A. EdwardsG · #5	40	39	13-27	3-9	10-14	+2	7	3
Bench
N. ReidC · #11	26	10	4-12	1-6	1-1	-18	6	1
M. ConleyG · #10	14	0	0-3	0-2	—	-13	1	2
J. ClarkG · #22	8	0	0-2	0-1	—	-6	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	17	3	1-4	1-3	—	-6	1	3
Team		128	44-90	16-41	24-31		40	24
DNP: J. Ingles, L. Miller, J. Beringer, J. Juzang, R. Dillingham

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	31	30	8-17	3-6	11-11	+7	6	2
C. CowardF · #23	28	14	5-10	1-4	3-4	+13	4	1
J. WellsF · #0	26	18	6-9	4-5	2-2	+5	1	2
J. LandaleC · #31	28	4	2-7	0-3	—	+6	6	2
T. JeromeG · #2	20	19	6-10	2-5	5-6	+4	6	8
Bench
O. ProsperF · #18	19	3	1-3	1-2	—	+6	6	2
GG JacksonF · #45	21	13	6-10	1-4	0-1	+14	8	1
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	19	4	2-6	0-1	—	-3	3	3
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	23	16	4-7	4-6	4-6	-11	1	5
C. SpencerG · #24	25	16	4-9	3-5	5-5	+4	4	5
Team		137	44-88	19-41	30-35		45	31
DNP: J. Konchar, S. Pippen Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

44-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-88

FG %

16-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-41

24-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

30-35

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM leads series 2-1

Dec 18

MEM116@

MIN110

Feb 1

MIN131@

MEM114

Feb 3

MIN128@

MEM137today

Mar 4

MEM110@

MIN117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-30575%

MEM+24529%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -7.5↗SpreadBet MIN -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat MIN 137-128. J. Jackson Jr. paced them with 30 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. Ty Jerome's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

115 PTS · 32 REB · 18 AST

GS 97

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 6

MEMstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

52 PTS · 22 REB · 16 AST

GS 51

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN1st Quarter · 2.9 · 29-36

+21pp→ 42% WP

Ty Jerome · enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper

MIN2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 29-36

+15pp→ 41% WP

Olivier-Maxence Prosper · enters the game for Cam Spencer

MEM3rd Quarter · 2:00 · 83-90

+8pp→ 72% WP

Vince Williams Jr. · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	29	29	28	42	128
MEM	36	30	32	39	137

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · MEM won 3

Edwards 12

Jerome 8

McDaniels 14

Jr. 12

Edwards 10

Jr. 11

Edwards 14

Spencer 9

MIN

MEM

Shooting comparison

MIN

MEM

49%

44-90

50%

44-88

39%

16-41

3PT

46%

19-41

77%

24-31

86%

30-35

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 128·MEM 137
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 128·MEM 137
Q4·0.1
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 128·MEM 137
Q4·0.7
Anthony Edwards misses heave jump shot
MIN 128·MEM 137
Q4·1.7
shot clock turnover
MIN 128·MEM 137
Q4·24.7
Anthony Edwards makes 2-foot two point shot
MIN 128·MEM 137
Q4·32.4
Ty Jerome makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 126·MEM 137
Q4·32.4
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MIN 126·MEM 136
Q4·32.4
Ty Jerome misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 126·MEM 136
Q4·32.4
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul
MIN 126·MEM 136
Q4·33.2
Jaden McDaniels makes two point shot
MIN 126·MEM 136
Q4·37.7
Cedric Coward makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 124·MEM 136
Q4·37.7
Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Jock Landale
·
MIN 124·MEM 135
Q4·37.7
Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 124·MEM 135
Q4·37.7
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul
MIN 124·MEM 134
Q4·42.6
Grizzlies Full timeout
MIN 124·MEM 134
Q4·51.8
Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)
·
MIN 124·MEM 134
Q4·56.5
Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound
MIN 121·MEM 134
Q4·59.2
Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 121·MEM 134
Q4·1:09
Cedric Coward makes driving dunk (Ty Jerome assists)
·
MIN 121·MEM 134
Q4·1:26
Julius Randle personal foul
MIN 121·MEM 132
Q4·1:26
Ty Jerome defensive rebound
MIN 121·MEM 132
Q4·1:28
Julius Randle misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIN 121·MEM 132
Q4·1:36
Ty Jerome makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot
MIN 121·MEM 132
+0.9pp
Q4·1:50
Naz Reid out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIN 121·MEM 130
+1pp
Q4·1:50
Naz Reid defensive rebound
MIN 121·MEM 130
Q4·1:53
Cedric Coward misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
MIN 121·MEM 130
−0.5pp
Q4·2:16
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 121·MEM 130
+1pp
Q4·2:16
Jaylen Wells shooting foul
MIN 120·MEM 130
−2pp
Q4·2:16
Anthony Edwards makes running layup
MIN 120·MEM 130
−0.6pp

Betting line

MIN -7.5·O/U 232.5·MIN -305/MEM +245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 137–128.

MEM +7.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
5.4± 4.1high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Jahmai MashackMEM
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

MEM

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR