NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CHA

13-39

95102

CHA

23-28

NBAMon, Feb 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCHA -6.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

LaMelo Ball

G · #1

18.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:43

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	36	12	4-9	4-7	—	-8	7	2
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	31	14	5-13	—	4-9	-7	11	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	37	27	10-20	3-8	4-4	-10	1	4
D. QueenC · #22	31	16	5-9	1-2	5-6	-9	8	3
S. BeyG · #41	35	8	2-12	1-6	3-4	-6	3	5
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	14	2	1-5	0-3	—	+1	1	2
Y. MissiC · #21	11	4	2-2	—	—	+2	1	0
J. AlvaradoG · #15	30	3	1-7	1-6	—	+2	0	3
J. FearsG · #0	15	9	3-7	1-2	2-2	0	2	0
Team		95	33-84	11-34	18-25		34	23
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	31	9	3-11	0-4	3-4	+13	4	1
M. DiabateF · #14	28	2	1-2	—	—	+2	9	2
B. MillerF · #24	37	16	7-21	2-12	—	+7	8	4
L. BallG · #1	30	24	8-20	3-14	5-5	+24	8	5
K. KnueppelG · #7	36	17	4-13	4-12	5-6	+11	9	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	20	16	5-7	2-4	4-4	-10	9	1
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	18	10	3-5	—	4-6	+7	7	1
C. SextonG · #8	12	5	2-4	1-3	—	-4	0	0
J. GreenG · #10	10	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	19	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	-13	5	0
Team		102	34-85	12-50	22-27		59	16
DNP: P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

33-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-85

FG %

11-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-50

18-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 5

CHA112@

NO116

Feb 2

NO95@

CHA102today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+22531%

CHA-27874%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat NO 102-95. L. Ball led with 24 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. CHA outscored the other side 29-18 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 60

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

CHAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 38 REB · 14 AST

GS 42

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 21 REB · 2 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA1st Quarter · 8:36 · 7-9

+10pp→ 69% WP

Sion James · out of bounds lost ball turnover

CHA2nd Quarter · 1:43 · 58-44

+14pp→ 21% WP

Kon Knueppel · makes free throw 1 of 2

CHA4th Quarter · 11:44 · 82-78

+12pp→ 50% WP

Jose Alvarado · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	30	34	18	13	95
CHA	23	26	29	24	102

Period scoring

NO won 2 · CHA won 2

Queen 10

Ball 11

III 7

Ball 19

III 10

Miller 8

III 5

Kalkbrenner 6

CHA

Shooting comparison

CHA

39%

33-84

40%

34-85

32%

11-34

3PT

24%

12-50

72%

18-25

81%

22-27

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 95·CHA 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 95·CHA 102
Q4·9.6
Trey Murphy III makes 2-foot driving dunk
NO 95·CHA 102
Q4·17.3
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 93·CHA 102
Q4·17.3
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
NO 93·CHA 101
Q4·17.3
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 93·CHA 101
Q4·17.3
Saddiq Bey personal take foul
NO 93·CHA 100
+0.5pp
Q4·24.8
Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
NO 93·CHA 100
Q4·37.9
Brandon Miller out of bounds lost ball turnover
·
NO 90·CHA 100
Q4·1:00
Brandon Miller defensive rebound
NO 90·CHA 100
Q4·1:02
Jose Alvarado misses 26-foot three point jumper
NO 90·CHA 100
+0.5pp
Q4·1:15
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 90·CHA 100
Q4·1:15
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
NO 90·CHA 99
Q4·1:15
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 90·CHA 99
Q4·1:15
Zion Williamson personal foul
·
NO 90·CHA 98
+1pp
Q4·1:31
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
NO 90·CHA 98
Q4·1:33
Zion Williamson misses 4-foot two point shot
·
NO 90·CHA 98
+1pp
Q4·1:34
Zion Williamson offensive rebound
·
NO 90·CHA 98
−1pp
Q4·1:36
Herbert Jones misses 26-foot running jump shot
NO 90·CHA 98
+1pp
Q4·1:42
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
NO 90·CHA 98
Q4·1:45
LaMelo Ball misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NO 90·CHA 98
−0.6pp
Q4·2:11
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 90·CHA 98
Q4·2:11
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 89·CHA 98
+1pp
Q4·2:11
Saddiq Bey misses free throw 1 of 2
NO 89·CHA 98
+2pp
Q4·2:11
Miles Bridges shooting foul
NO 89·CHA 98
−3pp
Q4·2:17
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
NO 89·CHA 98
Q4·2:21
Brandon Miller misses two point shot
NO 89·CHA 98
−0.5pp
Q4·2:45
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
NO 89·CHA 98
Q4·2:47
Zion Williamson misses driving layup
·
NO 89·CHA 98
+1pp
Q4·3:01
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 89·CHA 98
−1pp

Betting line

CHA -6.5·O/U 230.5·NO +225/CHA -278

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off New Orleans Pelicans, 102–95.

CHA -6.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 33.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

CHA

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

115.5

PPG

114.9

115.8

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR