OKC
39-11
DEN
33-17
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
34
Pts
5
Reb
13
Ast
DEN · top performer
Peyton Watson
G · #8
29
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 5pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:02
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | +4 | 5 | 1 | |
| 28 | 14 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 7-8 | +10 | 4 | 1 | |
| 33 | 34 | 11-16 | 1-2 | 11-13 | +22 | 5 | 13 | |
| 32 | 6 | 2-9 | 2-6 | — | +16 | 4 | 1 | |
| 30 | 27 | 9-14 | 7-11 | 2-3 | +14 | 6 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | — | +7 | 5 | 4 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-1 | -6 | 2 | 2 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-9 | — | -7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 25 | 14 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | +6 | 6 | 0 | |
| Team | 121 | 40-85 | 19-48 | 22-27 | 39 | 23 | ||
| DNP: A. Caruso | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | — | -22 | 2 | 0 | |
| 29 | 16 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3-4 | -7 | 7 | 8 | |
| 35 | 12 | 4-16 | 1-8 | 3-4 | -13 | 5 | 12 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | — | -9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 37 | 29 | 11-17 | 5-7 | 2-4 | -9 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | +7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 13 | 6-11 | 1-2 | — | -8 | 3 | 2 | |
| 25 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 3-4 | -6 | 6 | 0 | |
| 22 | 9 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 3-4 | +1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | +2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Team | 111 | 39-79 | 16-35 | 17-24 | 39 | 29 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
49
23
Ast
29
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
40-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
39-79
47
FG %
49
19-48
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-35
22-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-24
23
Assists
29
13
Turnovers
17
Season series
OKC leads series 1-0
OKC121@DEN111todayDEN121@OKC127DEN126@OKC129OKC107@DEN127Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-23070%DEN+19034%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OKC beat DEN 121-111. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 34 PTS, 5 REB, 13 AST. OKC outscored the other side 39-30 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST
GS 72
Bench(6)
36 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
GS 31
DENstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 21 REB · 24 AST
GS 59
Bench(7)
41 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST
GS 32
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 32 | 30 | 39 | 20 | 121 |
| DEN | 26 | 29 | 30 | 26 | 111 |
Period scoring
OKC won 3 · DEN won 1
Q1
Wallace 8
Watson 10
Q2
Joe 9
Strawther 8
Q3
Wallace 12
Jokic 8
Q4
Gilgeous-Alexander 7
Watson 8
Shooting comparison
47%
40-85
FG
49%
39-79
40%
19-48
3PT
46%
16-35
81%
22-27
FT
71%
17-24
Play-by-play · 462 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 121·DEN 111
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 121·DEN 111
- Q4·12.8
Julian Strawther makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·DEN 111
- Q4·12.8
Nuggets offensive team rebound
OKC 121·DEN 110
- Q4·12.8
Julian Strawther misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 121·DEN 110
- Q4·12.8
Brooks Barnhizer shooting foul
OKC 121·DEN 110
- Q4·18.9
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
OKC 121·DEN 110
- Q4·22.3
Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 121·DEN 110
- Q4·39.6
Hunter Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·DEN 110
- Q4·39.6
Hunter Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 121·DEN 109
- Q4·39.6
Brooks Barnhizer shooting foul
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·55.1
Nuggets defensive team rebound
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·56.3
Isaiah Joe misses 29-foot three point jumper
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·1:10
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·1:12
Julian Strawther misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·1:27
Hunter Tyson defensive rebound
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·1:30
Ousmane Dieng misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·1:45
Hunter Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)
·
OKC 121·DEN 108
- Q4·1:57
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
OKC 121·DEN 105
- Q4·2:00
Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 121·DEN 105
- Q4·2:18
DaRon Holmes II makes 13-foot jumper (Julian Strawther assists)
·
OKC 121·DEN 105
- Q4·2:31
Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
OKC 121·DEN 103
- Q4·2:31
Isaiah Joe personal take foul
OKC 121·DEN 103
- Q4·2:33
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·DEN 103
- Q4·2:33
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Cason Wallace
· ·
OKC 120·DEN 103
- Q4·2:33
Brooks Barnhizer enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 120·DEN 103
- Q4·2:33
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
OKC 120·DEN 103
- Q4·2:33
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 120·DEN 103
- Q4·2:33
Chet Holmgren misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 120·DEN 103
- Q4·2:33
Zeke Nnaji shooting foul
OKC 120·DEN 103
Betting line
OKC -7.5·O/U 225.5·OKC -230/DEN +190
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder went into Denver Nuggets and beat them, 121–111.
OKC -7.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC0.8± 0.8high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
DEN
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
118.5
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.7
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
12.1