NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10PHI

13-38

114124

PHI

27-21

NBASat, Jan 31FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasPHI -6.5

NO · top performer

Saddiq Bey

G · #41

28.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Joel Embiid

C · #21

29.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 5:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	31	5	2-5	1-3	—	-13	1	5
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	30	11	2-6	—	7-9	-17	5	2
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	38	19	8-21	3-11	—	-7	9	2
D. QueenC · #22	19	9	3-8	1-1	2-2	-10	6	2
S. BeyG · #41	32	34	12-19	4-7	6-6	-8	6	3
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	16	2	1-1	—	—	+8	5	1
Y. MissiC · #21	28	7	3-8	—	1-2	+4	8	3
J. AlvaradoG · #15	18	10	3-8	3-8	1-1	-10	2	3
M. PeavyG · #14	9	5	2-4	1-2	—	-4	0	1
J. FearsG · #0	21	12	4-12	2-4	2-2	+7	4	1
Team		114	40-92	15-36	19-22		46	23
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	28	8	3-4	0-1	2-2	+14	3	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	39	40	13-27	3-5	11-14	+16	11	4
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	30	19	7-13	3-7	2-4	+11	10	4
T. MaxeyG · #0	35	18	7-18	4-9	—	+5	5	8
V. EdgecombeG · #77	37	15	6-10	2-5	1-1	+7	3	5
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	17	5	2-5	1-2	—	-2	6	4
J. WalkerF · #33	8	0	0-2	—	—	0	2	0
A. BonaC · #30	13	3	1-5	—	1-2	-2	6	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	16	4	2-3	0-1	—	-3	4	2
J. McCainG · #20	17	12	4-7	4-6	—	+4	2	1
Team		124	45-94	17-36	17-23		52	28
DNP: P. George, J. Edwards, A. Drummond, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

40-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-94

FG %

15-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-36

19-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Feb 1

NO114@

PHI124today

Feb 22

PHI111@

NO126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+18535%

PHI-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -6.5↗SpreadBet PHI -6.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat NO 124-114. J. Embiid led the way with 40 points and 11 rebounds. PHI outscored the other side 36-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST

GS 35

PHIstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

100 PTS · 32 REB · 21 AST

GS 84

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 20 REB · 7 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO4th Quarter · 6:30 · 105-104

+12pp→ 48% WP

Jose Alvarado · makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot

PHI4th Quarter · 5:38 · 107-107

+13pp→ 50% WP

Joel Embiid · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)

PHI4th Quarter · 1:18 · 111-117

+10pp→ 93% WP

Tyrese Maxey · makes 26-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	33	21	27	33	114
PHI	31	36	20	37	124

Period scoring

NO won 2 · PHI won 2

Fears 8

Maxey 8

Bey 9

Embiid 15

Bey 12

Jr. 8

Alvarado 10

Embiid 21

PHI

Shooting comparison

PHI

43%

40-92

48%

45-94

42%

15-36

3PT

47%

17-36

86%

19-22

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 114·PHI 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 114·PHI 124
Q4·2.4
Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound
NO 114·PHI 124
Q4·2.4
Trey Murphy III misses running pullup jump shot
NO 114·PHI 124
Q4·8.8
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
NO 114·PHI 124
Q4·11.3
Joel Embiid misses free throw 2 of 2
NO 114·PHI 124
Q4·11.3
Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 114·PHI 124
Q4·11.3
Trey Murphy III personal take foul
NO 114·PHI 123
Q4·12.2
Herbert Jones bad pass turnover (Joel Embiid steals)
·
NO 114·PHI 123
Q4·13.7
8 second turnover
NO 114·PHI 123
Q4·13.7
76ers Full timeout
NO 114·PHI 123
Q4·17.2
Joel Embiid defensive rebound
NO 114·PHI 123
Q4·19.1
Dominick Barlow enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
NO 114·PHI 123
Q4·19.1
Zion Williamson misses free throw 2 of 2
NO 114·PHI 123
+0.5pp
Q4·19.1
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 114·PHI 123
Q4·19.1
Kelly Oubre Jr. personal foul
NO 113·PHI 123
Q4·21.7
Quentin Grimes enters the game for Dominick Barlow
·
NO 113·PHI 123
Q4·21.7
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 113·PHI 123
Q4·22.7
VJ Edgecombe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)
·
NO 113·PHI 123
+1pp
Q4·43.1
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
NO 113·PHI 120
+0.5pp
Q4·46.3
Saddiq Bey misses 25-foot three point jumper
NO 113·PHI 120
+2pp
Q4·51.1
Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 113·PHI 120
+8pp
Q4·1:12
Saddiq Bey makes 2-foot two point shot
NO 113·PHI 117
−4pp
Q4·1:18
Jose Alvarado enters the game for Yves Missi
·
NO 111·PHI 117
Q4·1:18
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 111·PHI 117
Q4·1:18
Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
NO 111·PHI 117
+10pp
Q4·1:37
Saddiq Bey makes two point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
NO 111·PHI 114
−5pp
Q4·1:48
Yves Missi defensive rebound
NO 109·PHI 114
Q4·1:50
Joel Embiid misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 109·PHI 114
−6pp
Q4·1:50
Zion Williamson enters the game for Jose Alvarado
·
NO 109·PHI 114

Betting line

PHI -6.5·O/U 234.5·NO +185/PHI -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off New Orleans Pelicans, 124–114.

PHI -6.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

PHI

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.9%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

25.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

13.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR