NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5IND

ATL

24-27

124129

IND

13-36

NBASat, Jan 31FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-1VegasATL -1.5

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

27.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 30pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. JohnsonF · #1	36	33	12-29	3-6	6-8	-5	11	10
M. GueyeF · #18	32	15	4-9	0-2	7-9	+4	4	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	22	7	3-5	1-2	—	+9	3	0
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	35	21	7-17	3-7	4-6	-1	3	5
D. DanielsG · #5	29	8	4-7	—	—	+5	8	7
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	22	11	4-6	2-4	1-1	-6	2	1
C. KolokoC · #35	16	0	0-3	—	—	-9	4	0
C. McCollumG · #3	29	18	8-15	1-5	1-2	-11	4	2
L. KennardG · #4	18	11	4-6	1-2	2-2	-11	0	0
Team		124	46-97	11-28	21-28		39	25
DNP: A. Newell, K. Wallace, V. Krejci

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	33	25	11-15	1-1	2-3	+6	6	1
J. WalkerF · #5	26	11	5-12	1-3	—	-9	10	4
A. NembhardG · #2	32	26	9-19	5-9	3-5	-1	6	10
A. NesmithG · #23	34	23	8-10	3-4	4-4	-1	1	1
J. FurphyG · #12	13	0	0-3	0-2	—	-9	2	1
Bench
I. JacksonF · #22	6	0	—	—	—	+3	5	1
J. HuffC · #32	31	16	6-11	3-8	1-1	+10	6	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	16	6	3-7	—	—	+6	3	4
B. SheppardG · #26	18	8	3-6	2-4	—	+4	7	3
B. MathurinG · #00	32	14	3-6	0-1	8-8	+16	5	4
Team		129	48-89	15-32	18-21		51	29
DNP: M. Potter, Q. Jackson, K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

46-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-89

FG %

11-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-32

21-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Oct 31

ATL128@

IND108

Jan 26

IND116@

ATL132

Feb 1

ATL124@

IND129today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-12255%

IND+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat ATL 129-124. A. Nembhard paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 10 AST. IND outscored the other side 45-34 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 29 REB · 22 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 28

INDstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 73-80

+30pp→ 67% WP

Johnny Furphy · enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin

ATL4th Quarter · 3:48 · 116-118

+16pp→ 50% WP

Andrew Nembhard · shooting foul

ATL4th Quarter · 8:46 · 104-109

+24pp→ 30% WP

Ben Sheppard · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	39	34	27	24	124
IND	35	45	23	26	129

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · IND won 2

Johnson 10

Nembhard 15

Johnson 11

Huff 10

Alexander-Walker 8

Furphy 52

Alexander-Walker 7

Kispert 18

ATL

IND

Shooting comparison

ATL

IND

47%

46-97

54%

48-89

39%

11-28

3PT

47%

15-32

75%

21-28

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 124·IND 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 124·IND 129
Q4·0.0
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 124·IND 129
Q4·0.0
CJ McCollum misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 124·IND 129
+2pp
Q4·3.8
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 124·IND 129
−0.8pp
Q4·3.8
CJ McCollum enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 124·IND 128
Q4·3.8
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 124·IND 128
Q4·3.8
Mouhamed Gueye shooting foul
ATL 124·IND 127
+0.5pp
Q4·5.7
Corey Kispert enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
ATL 124·IND 127
Q4·5.7
Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 124·IND 127
Q4·5.7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal take foul
·
ATL 124·IND 127
+4pp
Q4·6.6
Jalen Johnson bad pass turnover (T.J. McConnell steals)
·
ATL 124·IND 127
+0.7pp
Q4·7.4
Luke Kennard enters the game for Corey Kispert
·
ATL 124·IND 127
Q4·7.4
CJ McCollum enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 124·IND 127
Q4·7.4
Hawks Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·IND 127
+7pp
Q4·7.4
T.J. McConnell traveling turnoverBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·IND 127
−7pp
Q4·7.4
Pacers Full timeout
ATL 124·IND 127
Q4·7.4
Corey Kispert enters the game for CJ McCollumBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 124·IND 127
+24pp
Q4·7.4
Pacers Full timeout
ATL 124·IND 127
Q4·7.4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ATL 124·IND 127
+0.7pp
Q4·7.4
Hawks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 123·IND 127
+5pp
Q4·7.4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 123·IND 127
+6pp
Q4·7.4
T.J. McConnell enters the game for Andrew Nembhard
·
ATL 123·IND 127
Q4·7.4
Andrew Nembhard loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 123·IND 127
−11pp
Q4·7.4
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 123·IND 127
−1pp
Q4·10.3
Mouhamed Gueye misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ATL 123·IND 127
+8pp
Q4·18.6
Pascal Siakam makes 11-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ATL 123·IND 127
+12pp
Q4·38.3
CJ McCollum makes 9-foot fade away jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 123·IND 125
−7pp
Q4·41.7
Jarace Walker enters the game for Jay Huff
·
ATL 121·IND 125
Q4·41.7
Hawks Full timeout
ATL 121·IND 125

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 234.5·ATL -122/IND +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers held off Atlanta Hawks, 129–124. Decided by 5.

IND +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

IND

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.7

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR