NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CHA

32-16

106111

CHA

22-28

NBASat, Jan 31FinalSeriesCHA leads series 1-0VegasSA -3.5

SA · top performer

Dylan Harper

G · #2

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Collin Sexton

G · #8

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 10.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	29	13	4-7	4-6	1-1	-2	5	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	31	16	6-15	0-3	4-4	-14	8	1
D. FoxG · #4	32	11	5-13	1-5	—	-15	2	7
D. VassellG · #24	30	13	5-10	2-7	1-2	+7	5	2
S. CastleG · #5	35	16	5-11	1-2	5-6	+4	5	9
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	25	11	3-6	3-5	2-2	+4	3	2
K. JohnsonF · #3	16	6	1-5	0-3	4-4	-3	2	1
L. KornetC · #7	19	0	—	—	—	0	5	1
D. HarperG · #2	23	20	9-13	2-3	—	-6	1	2
Team		106	38-80	13-34	17-19		36	26
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, C. Bryant, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	31	14	5-12	1-6	3-3	-11	6	2
M. DiabateF · #14	33	12	6-9	—	—	+19	10	6
B. MillerF · #24	35	26	7-21	3-9	9-9	+13	8	2
L. BallG · #1	32	16	5-15	2-6	4-5	+7	8	8
K. KnueppelG · #7	35	13	5-11	1-4	2-3	+1	6	4
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	18	3	1-5	1-4	—	+10	4	2
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	14	6	3-4	—	—	-14	4	0
C. SextonG · #8	18	21	7-8	5-5	2-2	-4	0	3
J. GreenG · #10	11	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	1	2
S. JamesG · #4	12	0	0-2	—	—	+6	4	1
Team		111	39-88	13-35	20-22		51	30
DNP: T. Salaun, P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

38-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-88

FG %

13-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-35

17-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 1-0

Jan 31

SA106@

CHA111today

Mar 14

CHA102@

SA115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-16662%

CHA+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -3.5↗SpreadBet SA -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat SA 111-106. C. Sexton led with 21 PTS, 0 REB, 3 AST. CHA outscored the other side 35-17 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

37 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

CHAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 38 REB · 22 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 4:50 · 98-100

+21pp→ 41% WP

Miles Bridges · misses driving floating jump shot

CHA4th Quarter · 3:48 · 98-100

+18pp→ 62% WP

Julian Champagnie · misses 26-foot three point jumper

CHA4th Quarter · 10.6 · 106-109

+21pp→ 97% WP

Stephon Castle · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	30	17	28	31	106
CHA	26	35	24	26	111

Period scoring

SA won 3 · CHA won 1

Champagnie 7

Ball 9

Castle 6

Miller 16

Harper 7

Kalkbrenner 10

Barnes 8

Bridges 13

CHA

Shooting comparison

CHA

48%

38-80

44%

39-88

38%

13-34

3PT

37%

13-35

89%

17-19

91%

20-22

Play-by-play · 456 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 106·CHA 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 106·CHA 111
Q4·1.3
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
SA 106·CHA 111
+0.6pp
Q4·3.8
Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 106·CHA 111
+2pp
Q4·5.3
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
SA 106·CHA 111
−0.5pp
Q4·8.3
De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 106·CHA 111
+3pp
Q4·10.6
Stephon Castle enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 106·CHA 111
Q4·10.6
Spurs Full timeout
SA 106·CHA 111
Q4·10.6
Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 106·CHA 111
−2pp
Q4·10.6
Luke Kornet enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
SA 106·CHA 110
Q4·10.6
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
SA 106·CHA 110
Q4·10.6
Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 106·CHA 110
+0.7pp
Q4·10.6
Stephon Castle personal take foulBIG MOMENT
SA 106·CHA 109
+21pp
Q4·24.9
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
SA 106·CHA 109
+3pp
Q4·27.0
Victor Wembanyama misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 106·CHA 109
+9pp
Q4·36.0
Spurs defensive team rebound
SA 106·CHA 109
−2pp
Q4·36.0
Victor Wembanyama vs. Moussa Diabate (Stephon Castle gains possession)
· ·
SA 106·CHA 109
Q4·36.0
(00:36) [Spurs] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Spurs] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
SA 106·CHA 109
−17pp
Q4·36.0
Spurs Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
SA 106·CHA 109
+10pp
Q4·37.2
Brandon Miller misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 106·CHA 109
−10pp
Q4·58.8
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 106·CHA 109
+8pp
Q4·58.8
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 105·CHA 109
−2pp
Q4·58.8
LaMelo Ball shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SA 104·CHA 109
−10pp
Q4·1:07
Miles Bridges makes free throw 3 of 3
SA 104·CHA 109
−4pp
Q4·1:07
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
SA 104·CHA 108
+5pp
Q4·1:07
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 3
SA 104·CHA 107
+2pp
Q4·1:07
Harrison Barnes shooting foul
SA 104·CHA 106
+0.7pp
Q4·1:20
De'Aaron Fox personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 104·CHA 106
+14pp
Q4·1:37
Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 104·CHA 106
+8pp
Q4·1:37
Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 103·CHA 106
−2pp

Betting line

SA -3.5·O/U 227.5·SA -166/CHA +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off San Antonio Spurs, 111–106. Decided by 5.

CHA +3.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

CHA

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

115.8

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR