LAC
22-25
DEN
33-16
LAC · top performer
James Harden
G · #1
25
Pts
5
Reb
9
Ast
DEN · top performer
Nikola Jokic
C · #15
31
Pts
12
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 20pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:16
NBA · LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 21 | 8-18 | 1-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 3 | 6 | |
| 31 | 18 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 0-1 | -15 | 6 | 4 | |
| 30 | 13 | 6-10 | — | 1-2 | -6 | 7 | 2 | |
| 34 | 25 | 8-17 | 4-10 | 5-5 | -17 | 5 | 9 | |
| 25 | 5 | 2-9 | 1-6 | — | -5 | 2 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-6 | — | -2 | 3 | 1 | |
| 16 | 0 | — | — | — | -10 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-3 | -5 | 3 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | — | — | 3-4 | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-5 | — | -8 | 2 | 2 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-1 | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 109 | 40-86 | 14-40 | 15-21 | 34 | 29 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | +3 | 6 | 1 | |
| 25 | 31 | 8-11 | 2-3 | 13-17 | +11 | 12 | 5 | |
| 36 | 20 | 7-10 | 4-5 | 2-2 | +25 | 4 | 9 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 | — | -8 | 3 | 3 | |
| 35 | 21 | 9-17 | 2-5 | 1-2 | +22 | 4 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 11 | 5-11 | — | 1-1 | +5 | 6 | 2 | |
| 25 | 22 | 6-9 | 5-7 | 5-5 | +10 | 2 | 0 | |
| 26 | 6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3-3 | +17 | 2 | 3 | |
| 17 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | -11 | 3 | 3 | |
| Team | 122 | 40-73 | 16-28 | 26-32 | 43 | 30 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
55
29
Ast
30
Team stats
LAC
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
40-86
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-73
47
FG %
55
14-40
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-28
15-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-32
29
Assists
30
9
Turnovers
12
Season series
DEN leads series 2-0
DEN130@LAC116LAC109@DEN122todayDEN114@LAC115Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
218.5
Defensive · -7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAC-14259%DEN+12045%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
218.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat LAC 122-109. N. Jokic paced them with 31 PTS, 12 REB, 5 AST. DEN outscored the other side 35-27 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs LAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitLACstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 23 REB · 26 AST
GS 66
Bench(8)
27 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 23
DENstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 29 REB · 21 AST
GS 73
Bench(7)
46 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST
GS 39
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBruce Brown · out of bounds bad pass turnover
James Harden · bad pass turnover (Nikola Jokic steals)
Nikola Jokic · makes layup (Bruce Brown assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 27 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 109 |
| DEN | 35 | 24 | 33 | 30 | 122 |
Period scoring
LAC won 0 · DEN won 4
Q1
Collins 8
Watson 11
Q2
Harden 11
Valanciunas 5
Q3
Harden 10
Harden 20
Q4
Leonard 9
Jokic 69
Shooting comparison
47%
40-86
FG
55%
40-73
35%
14-40
3PT
57%
16-28
71%
15-21
FT
81%
26-32
Play-by-play · 440 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 109·DEN 122
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 109·DEN 122
- Q4·1.4
shot clock turnover
LAC 109·DEN 122
- Q4·25.4
Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 1
LAC 109·DEN 122
- Q4·25.4
DaRon Holmes II shooting foul
LAC 108·DEN 122
- Q4·25.4
Jordan Miller makes layup
LAC 108·DEN 122
- Q4·25.4
Jordan Miller offensive rebound
LAC 106·DEN 122
- Q4·26.5
Julian Strawther blocks Yanic Konan Niederhauser 's 1-foot layup
·
LAC 106·DEN 122
- Q4·41.6
DaRon Holmes II makes dunk (Julian Strawther assists)
·
LAC 106·DEN 122
- Q4·58.3
Cam Christie makes free throw 1 of 1
LAC 106·DEN 120
- Q4·58.3
Julian Strawther shooting foul
LAC 105·DEN 120
- Q4·58.3
Cam Christie makes driving layup (Kobe Sanders assists)
·
LAC 105·DEN 120
- Q4·1:06
Zeke Nnaji back court turnover
·
LAC 103·DEN 120
- Q4·1:19
Hunter Tyson defensive rebound
LAC 103·DEN 120
- Q4·1:21
Kobe Brown misses free throw 2 of 2
·
LAC 103·DEN 120
- Q4·1:21
Kobe Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
·
LAC 103·DEN 120
- Q4·1:21
Jalen Pickett shooting foul
LAC 102·DEN 120
- Q4·1:42
Zeke Nnaji makes 1-foot dunk (Hunter Tyson assists)
·
LAC 102·DEN 120
- Q4·2:00
Kobe Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
·
LAC 102·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
Yanic Konan Niederhauser enters the game for Ivica Zubac
·
LAC 101·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
LAC 101·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Spencer Jones
·
LAC 101·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
Hunter Tyson enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
LAC 101·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Bruce Brown
· ·
LAC 101·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
Julian Strawther enters the game for Peyton Watson
·
LAC 101·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
Kobe Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
·
LAC 101·DEN 118
- Q4·2:00
Bruce Brown personal foul
·
LAC 100·DEN 118
- Q4·2:12
Jamal Murray makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
LAC 100·DEN 118
- Q4·2:24
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
LAC 100·DEN 116
- Q4·2:27
Kobe Sanders misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
LAC 100·DEN 116
Betting line
LAC -2.5·O/U 218.5·LAC -142/DEN +120
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets held off LA Clippers, 122–109.
DEN +2.5 cashed (LAC lost outright). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 12.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Kawhi LeonardTOR · FUSG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · CTS%69.198
Ivica ZubacIND · CCONT9.298
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs LAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Darius GarlandLAC19.0± 5.5high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Marvin Bagley IIIDEN5.9± 3.4high
- Brook LopezLAC5.5± 2.4high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
Blocks
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
- Isaiah JacksonLAC1.2± 0.8high
Steals
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.3± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAC
league avg
DEN
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
48.5%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
113.9
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
23.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.1