NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13PHX

CLE

29-21

113126

PHX

30-19

NBAFri, Jan 30FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCLE -1.5

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

14.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Dillon Brooks

F · #3

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 33.4

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	20	3	1-3	1-3	—	-14	4	0
J. AllenC · #31	23	12	6-9	—	—	-27	7	3
D. MitchellG · #45	28	16	6-12	3-8	1-1	-10	3	6
S. MerrillG · #5	19	10	4-12	2-7	—	-19	2	2
J. TysonG · #20	25	16	7-13	2-5	—	-30	4	3
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	10	9	3-5	1-1	2-2	+17	3	2
D. HunterF · #12	23	17	7-15	2-7	1-3	-10	3	1
N. TomlinF · #35	25	14	6-9	0-2	2-2	+14	5	1
T. BryantC · #3	25	9	3-6	3-5	—	+14	6	6
L. BallG · #2	25	3	1-8	1-7	0-1	-10	6	5
T. ProctorG · #24	18	4	1-5	0-3	2-2	+10	0	5
Team		113	45-97	15-48	8-11		43	34
DNP: C. Porter Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	24	12	4-8	4-8	—	+19	5	2
D. BrooksF · #3	24	27	9-14	2-4	7-8	+24	2	3
M. WilliamsC · #15	23	10	5-9	—	—	+18	7	2
G. AllenG · #8	27	13	4-8	2-5	3-5	+24	5	5
C. GillespieG · #12	24	16	5-8	4-6	2-3	+5	2	5
Bench
N. Hayes-DavisF · #21	3	0	—	—	—	-7	0	0
I. LiversF · #18	7	4	1-2	1-2	1-2	-13	1	2
O. IghodaroF · #11	22	4	2-2	—	—	+2	6	2
R. DunnF · #0	18	0	0-5	0-4	—	-1	3	3
R. FlemingF · #20	6	5	2-3	1-1	—	-13	3	0
K. MaluachC · #10	3	0	—	—	—	-7	0	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	22	17	6-11	5-8	—	+5	5	1
J. BouyeaG · #17	21	7	3-6	1-3	—	+1	0	5
J. GreenG · #4	16	11	4-9	3-7	—	+8	4	1
Team		126	45-85	23-48	13-18		43	31
DNP: N. Richards

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

45-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-85

FG %

15-48

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

23-48

8-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 31

PHX113@

CLE129

Jan 31

CLE113@

PHX126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-12255%

PHX+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat CLE 126-113. D. Brooks paced them with 27 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. PHX outscored the other side 45-32 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 41

Bench(6)

56 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST

GS 50

PHXstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST

GS 73

Bench(9)

48 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE1st Quarter · 33.4 · 25-26

+10pp→ 53% WP

Jalen Green · misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot

CLE2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 25-26

+10pp→ 53% WP

Jordan Goodwin · enters the game for Jalen Green

PHX2nd Quarter · 2:25 · 42-49

+7pp→ 70% WP

Dean Wade · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	25	22	32	34	113
PHX	26	26	45	29	126

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · PHX won 3

Allen 8

Bryant 6

Goodwin 8

Mitchell 11

Brooks 20

Tomlin 10

Ball 15

CLE

PHX

Shooting comparison

CLE

PHX

46%

45-97

53%

45-85

31%

15-48

3PT

48%

23-48

73%

8-11

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·17.4
shot clock turnover
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·35.8
Larry Nance Jr. personal foul
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·35.8
Isaiah Livers defensive rebound
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·40.2
Lonzo Ball misses 26-foot running jump shot
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·42.4
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·47.3
Jamaree Bouyea misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·1:10
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 1-foot dunk (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
CLE 113·PHX 126
Q4·1:12
Nigel Hayes-Davis lost ball turnover (Nae'Qwan Tomlin steals)
· ·
CLE 111·PHX 126
Q4·1:21
Lonzo Ball makes 29-foot three point jumper (Thomas Bryant assists)
·
CLE 111·PHX 126
Q4·1:44
Rasheer Fleming makes running layup
CLE 108·PHX 126
Q4·1:49
Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound
CLE 108·PHX 124
Q4·1:53
Tyrese Proctor misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 108·PHX 124
Q4·2:06
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 108·PHX 124
Q4·2:08
Isaiah Livers misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 108·PHX 124
Q4·2:08
Isaiah Livers makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 108·PHX 124
Q4·2:08
Nae'Qwan Tomlin shooting foul
CLE 108·PHX 123
Q4·2:08
Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound
CLE 108·PHX 123
Q4·2:12
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses running layup
CLE 108·PHX 123
Q4·2:18
Isaiah Livers bad pass turnover (Lonzo Ball steals)
·
CLE 108·PHX 123
Q4·2:26
Tyrese Proctor personal foul
CLE 108·PHX 123
Q4·2:33
Larry Nance Jr. makes tip shot
CLE 108·PHX 123
Q4·2:33
Larry Nance Jr. offensive rebound
CLE 106·PHX 123
Q4·2:34
Lonzo Ball misses free throw 1 of 1
CLE 106·PHX 123
Q4·2:34
Isaiah Livers personal foul
CLE 106·PHX 123
Q4·2:34
Thomas Bryant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)
·
CLE 106·PHX 123
Q4·2:35
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
CLE 103·PHX 123
Q4·2:39
Lonzo Ball misses 29-foot three point jumper
CLE 103·PHX 123
Q4·2:42
Nigel Hayes-Davis enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
CLE 103·PHX 123

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 221.5·CLE -122/PHX +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 126–113.

PHX +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Olivier SarrCLE
0.8± 1.6low

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

PHX

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR