NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31LAL

LAL

29-18

142111

WSH

12-35

NBAFri, Jan 30FinalSeriesLAL lead series 1-0VegasLAL -10.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

37.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

16.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ WSH

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	30	20	8-16	2-3	2-2	+25	3	6
J. LaRaviaF · #12	25	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	+24	6	1
D. AytonC · #5	29	28	12-14	—	4-4	+30	13	3
M. SmartG · #36	27	3	1-2	1-2	—	+21	1	4
L. DoncicG · #77	31	37	13-21	6-13	5-7	+21	11	13
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	5	4	2-2	—	—	+4	3	1
R. HachimuraF · #28	18	11	3-5	2-3	3-6	-2	2	2
J. VanderbiltF · #2	16	8	3-5	1-2	1-2	+7	2	1
D. TimmeF · #17	17	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+17	1	3
D. KnechtF · #4	5	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+4	1	0
J. HayesC · #11	14	10	4-5	—	2-2	-3	3	1
G. VincentG · #7	18	6	2-5	2-5	—	+3	0	2
B. JamesG · #9	5	4	1-3	0-1	2-3	+4	0	1
Team		142	52-85	14-33	24-32		46	38

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #9	24	9	4-7	1-3	—	-27	4	0
K. GeorgeF · #18	27	15	5-12	2-7	3-4	-17	3	6
A. SarrC · #20	28	16	8-14	0-3	—	-30	6	5
B. CarringtonG · #7	25	15	5-11	4-8	1-1	-28	3	6
B. CoulibalyG · #0	24	7	3-11	0-5	1-2	-22	2	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	17	9	4-5	—	1-1	+2	10	0
S. CooperG · #13	13	2	1-4	0-1	—	-10	2	2
M. BranhamG · #8	22	17	6-9	4-6	1-2	-3	1	0
J. WatkinsG · #5	35	8	3-11	2-8	—	-15	6	2
W. RileyG · #27	25	13	5-15	3-7	—	-5	2	5
Team		111	44-99	16-48	7-10		39	28
DNP: S. Labissiere, AJ Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

52-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-99

FG %

14-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-48

24-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-10

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 1-0

Jan 31

LAL142@

WSH111today

Mar 31

WSH101@

LAL120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-47082%

WSH+36022%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -10.5↗SpreadBet LAL -10.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat WSH 142-111. L. Doncic stuffed the line with 37 PTS, 11 REB, and 13 AST. LAL outscored the other side 36-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 34 REB · 27 AST

GS 94

Bench(8)

51 PTS · 12 REB · 11 AST

GS 51

WSHstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 18 REB · 19 AST

GS 47

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 37

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	41	36	31	34	142
WSH	27	21	36	27	111

Period scoring

LAL won 3 · WSH won 1

Doncic 16

Carrington 8

Doncic 10

George 7

Doncic 11

George 8

Ayton 8

Branham 15

LAL

WSH

Shooting comparison

LAL

WSH

61%

52-85

44%

44-99

42%

14-33

3PT

33%

16-48

75%

24-32

70%

7-10

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 142·WSH 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 142·WSH 111
Q4·0.9
shot clock turnover
LAL 142·WSH 111
Q4·23.3
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
LAL 142·WSH 111
Q4·27.1
Jamir Watkins misses 30-foot three point jumper
LAL 142·WSH 111
Q4·36.1
Maxi Kleber makes 4-foot pullup jump shot (Drew Timme assists)
·
LAL 142·WSH 111
Q4·52.5
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
LAL 140·WSH 111
Q4·55.1
Sharife Cooper misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 140·WSH 111
Q4·1:03
Maxi Kleber makes 1-foot driving dunk (Drew Timme assists)
·
LAL 140·WSH 111
Q4·1:13
Maxi Kleber defensive rebound
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:15
Anthony Gill misses 12-foot two point shot
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:29
Wizards defensive team rebound
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:29
Anthony Gill blocks Bronny James 's 2-foot running dunk
· ·
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:29
(01:29) [Wizards] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Wizards] retain their timeout
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:29
Wizards Coach's Challenge
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:32
Will Riley lost ball turnover (Jake LaRavia steals)
·
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:42
Dalton Knecht makes 3-foot two point shot (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 138·WSH 111
Q4·1:48
Will Riley kicked ball violation
LAL 136·WSH 111
Q4·2:07
Sharife Cooper makes driving layup
LAL 136·WSH 111
Q4·2:17
Bronny James makes free throw 3 of 3
·
LAL 136·WSH 109
Q4·2:17
Bronny James makes free throw 2 of 3
·
LAL 135·WSH 109
Q4·2:17
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 134·WSH 109
Q4·2:17
Bronny James misses free throw 1 of 3
·
LAL 134·WSH 109
Q4·2:17
Anthony Gill shooting foul
LAL 134·WSH 109
Q4·2:46
Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)
·
LAL 134·WSH 109
Q4·2:47
Will Riley offensive rebound
LAL 134·WSH 106
Q4·2:50
Jamir Watkins misses 30-foot three point jumper
LAL 134·WSH 106
Q4·2:52
Anthony Gill offensive rebound
LAL 134·WSH 106
Q4·2:55
Will Riley misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 134·WSH 106
Q4·3:06
Bronny James makes 1-foot running dunk
·
LAL 134·WSH 106

Betting line

LAL -10.5·O/U 229.5·LAL -470/WSH +360

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 142–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAL -10.5 cashed (won by 31). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.5± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

WSH

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

114.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR