NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10ORL

TOR

29-21

120130

ORL

25-22

NBAFri, Jan 30FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasORL -2.5

TOR · top performer

Brandon Ingram

F · #3

26.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Anthony Black

G · #0

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 45pp · 4th Quarter · 6:13

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	35	13-23	4-8	5-7	-13	3	2
R. BarrettF · #9	31	16	6-14	0-5	4-5	-9	3	5
S. BarnesF · #4	36	19	7-12	0-3	5-7	+6	8	6
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	33	12	5-7	—	2-2	-19	6	4
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	13	5-13	2-6	1-3	-16	7	6
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	24	8	1-4	0-3	6-6	-8	4	4
O. AgbajiG · #30	3	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	21	4	2-4	0-1	—	-4	1	4
J. WalterG · #14	16	13	5-6	1-1	2-2	+13	3	1
G. DickG · #1	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	2	1
Team		120	44-84	7-28	25-32		38	33
DNP: J. Battle, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, A.J. Lawson, A. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	41	20	5-11	1-1	9-11	+18	9	6
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	35	23	9-14	2-4	3-3	+23	7	3
D. BaneG · #3	36	32	11-15	7-10	3-3	+17	1	2
J. SuggsG · #4	33	14	5-14	3-8	1-1	+13	6	10
A. BlackG · #0	40	25	5-11	1-5	14-14	+14	4	6
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	3	1	0-1	—	1-2	-9	0	0
J. IsaacF · #1	13	4	1-2	—	2-3	-13	4	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	22	8	3-6	2-4	—	-10	1	0
N. PendaF · #93	7	0	0-2	0-1	—	+2	3	0
T. JonesG · #2	10	3	1-2	1-1	—	-5	0	1
Team		130	40-78	17-34	33-37		35	28
DNP: G. Bitadze, J. Howard, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

44-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-78

FG %

7-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-34

25-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

33-37

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 30

ORL106@

TOR107

Jan 31

TOR120@

ORL130today

Mar 29

ORL87@

TOR139

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+12045%

ORL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat TOR 130-120. A. Black paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 6 AST. ORL outscored the other side 44-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 27 REB · 23 AST

GS 79

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST

GS 24

ORLstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

114 PTS · 27 REB · 27 AST

GS 105

Bench(5)

16 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

GS 5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 6:02 · 104-107

+19pp→ 69% WP

Desmond Bane · makes 27-foot three pointer

ORL4th Quarter · 5:16 · 107-109

+14pp→ 63% WP

Desmond Bane · makes 13-foot pullup jump shot

TOR4th Quarter · 6:13 · 104-104

+45pp→ 45% WP

Scottie Barnes · lost ball turnover (Paolo Banchero steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	28	29	42	21	120
ORL	29	21	36	44	130

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · ORL won 2

Ingram 7

Black 8

Walter 7

Jr. 8

Ingram 14

Banchero 8

Ingram 8

Bane 16

TOR

ORL

Shooting comparison

TOR

ORL

52%

44-84

51%

40-78

25%

7-28

3PT

50%

17-34

78%

25-32

89%

33-37

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 120·ORL 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 120·ORL 130
Q4·8.0
Anthony Black defensive rebound
TOR 120·ORL 130
Q4·11.8
Immanuel Quickley misses 27-foot three point shot
TOR 120·ORL 130
Q4·15.4
Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 120·ORL 130
Q4·15.4
Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 120·ORL 129
Q4·15.4
RJ Barrett personal take foul
TOR 120·ORL 128
Q4·26.8
Immanuel Quickley makes driving layup
TOR 120·ORL 128
Q4·31.5
Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 118·ORL 128
Q4·31.5
Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 118·ORL 127
Q4·31.5
Immanuel Quickley shooting foul
TOR 118·ORL 126
Q4·41.4
Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three pointer (RJ Barrett assists)
·
TOR 118·ORL 126
−0.5pp
Q4·43.3
RJ Barrett offensive rebound
TOR 115·ORL 126
Q4·46.3
RJ Barrett misses free throw 3 of 3
TOR 115·ORL 126
Q4·46.3
RJ Barrett makes free throw 2 of 3
TOR 115·ORL 126
Q4·46.3
RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 3
TOR 114·ORL 126
Q4·46.3
Jalen Suggs shooting foul
TOR 113·ORL 126
Q4·46.5
Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound
TOR 113·ORL 126
Q4·50.0
Brandon Ingram misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 113·ORL 126
Q4·52.2
Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound
TOR 113·ORL 126
Q4·54.8
Brandon Ingram misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 113·ORL 126
Q4·1:04
Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 113·ORL 126
Q4·1:04
Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 113·ORL 125
Q4·1:04
Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foul
TOR 113·ORL 124
Q4·1:09
Anthony Black defensive rebound
TOR 113·ORL 124
Q4·1:13
Paolo Banchero blocks Scottie Barnes 's 2-foot running layup
·
TOR 113·ORL 124
Q4·1:17
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
TOR 113·ORL 124
Q4·1:20
Paolo Banchero misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 113·ORL 124
Q4·1:20
Magic offensive team rebound
TOR 113·ORL 124
Q4·1:20
Paolo Banchero misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 113·ORL 124

Betting line

ORL -2.5·O/U 221.5·TOR +120/ORL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Toronto Raptors, 130–120.

ORL -2.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

ORL

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR