OKC
38-11
MIN
30-19
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
30
Pts
6
Reb
8
Ast
MIN · top performer
Anthony Edwards
G · #5
26
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 2:22
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | — | -8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 30 | 15 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -5 | 5 | 2 | |
| 31 | 30 | 12-18 | 1-2 | 5-5 | -22 | 6 | 8 | |
| 27 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-2 | — | -17 | 4 | 2 | |
| 25 | 10 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | -15 | 4 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +8 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +8 | 0 | 1 | |
| 18 | 11 | 3-6 | — | 5-6 | -7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | — | +1 | 3 | 1 | |
| 25 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-6 | — | -2 | 3 | 3 | |
| 26 | 13 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -9 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 2-3 | +8 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 111 | 41-86 | 11-31 | 18-20 | 36 | 27 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 13 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 1-1 | +13 | 5 | 5 | |
| 31 | 21 | 8-11 | 5-5 | — | +18 | 4 | 4 | |
| 34 | 14 | 5-6 | — | 4-8 | +20 | 11 | 3 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4-13 | 3-9 | — | +12 | 5 | 5 | |
| 35 | 26 | 9-17 | 4-10 | 4-5 | +24 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -10 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -10 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 29 | 18 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 2-4 | +11 | 7 | 2 | |
| 15 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | — | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-6 | — | +12 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -10 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 123 | 45-89 | 22-47 | 11-18 | 46 | 26 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
51
27
Ast
26
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
41-86
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
45-89
48
FG %
51
11-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
22-47
18-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-18
27
Assists
26
15
Turnovers
19
Season series
MIN leads series 2-1
MIN105@OKC113OKC107@MIN112OKC111@MIN123todayMIN103@OKC116Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-20567%MIN+17037%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat OKC 123-111. A. Edwards paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 34-22 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST
GS 58
Bench(7)
46 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST
GS 37
MINstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 30 REB · 22 AST
GS 80
Bench(8)
38 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIsaiah Hartenstein · technical foul
Isaiah Hartenstein · makes free throw 1 of 2
Jaden McDaniels · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 22 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 111 |
| MIN | 34 | 29 | 33 | 27 | 123 |
Period scoring
OKC won 1 · MIN won 3
Q1
Hartenstein 6
Edwards 12
Q2
Gilgeous-Alexander 11
Reid 8
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 15
McDaniels 10
Q4
Wallace 5
Reid 6
Shooting comparison
48%
41-86
FG
51%
45-89
35%
11-31
3PT
47%
22-47
90%
18-20
FT
61%
11-18
Play-by-play · 476 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 111·MIN 123
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 111·MIN 123
- Q4·8.7
Kenrich Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chris Youngblood assists)
· ·
OKC 111·MIN 123
- Q4·10.6
Rob Dillingham out of bounds lost ball turnover
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·12.5
Ousmane Dieng lost ball turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)
·
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·17.6
Rob Dillingham bad pass turnover (Ousmane Dieng steals)
·
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·28.8
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·32.8
Chris Youngblood misses 24-foot running jump shot
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·37.6
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·40.0
Rob Dillingham misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·48.5
Kenrich Williams personal foul
·
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·55.5
Ousmane Dieng makes 7-foot fade away jump shot
OKC 108·MIN 123
- Q4·1:07
Rob Dillingham bad pass turnover (Kenrich Williams steals)
· ·
OKC 106·MIN 123
- Q4·1:25
Chris Youngblood makes free throw 3 of 3
OKC 106·MIN 123
- Q4·1:25
Chris Youngblood makes free throw 2 of 3
OKC 105·MIN 123
- Q4·1:25
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 104·MIN 123
- Q4·1:25
Chris Youngblood misses free throw 1 of 3
OKC 104·MIN 123
- Q4·1:25
Leonard Miller shooting foul
OKC 104·MIN 123
- Q4·1:41
Johnny Juzang makes 13-foot step back jumpshot
OKC 104·MIN 123
- Q4·1:52
Kenrich Williams makes driving layup
·
OKC 104·MIN 121
- Q4·2:02
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 102·MIN 121
- Q4·2:02
Johnny Juzang misses running pullup jump shot
OKC 102·MIN 121
- Q4·2:05
Johnny Juzang defensive rebound
OKC 102·MIN 121
- Q4·2:09
Chris Youngblood misses 22-foot running jump shot
OKC 102·MIN 121
- Q4·2:12
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 102·MIN 121
- Q4·2:14
Joe Ingles misses two point shot
·
OKC 102·MIN 121
- Q4·2:25
Chris Youngblood makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)
·
OKC 102·MIN 121
- Q4·2:37
Rob Dillingham makes 15-foot step back jumpshot
OKC 99·MIN 121
- Q4·2:52
Brooks Barnhizer makes 12-foot floating jump shot (Chris Youngblood assists)
·
OKC 99·MIN 119
- Q4·3:03
Brooks Barnhizer offensive rebound
OKC 97·MIN 119
Betting line
OKC -5.5·O/U 227.5·OKC -205/MIN +170
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 123–111.
MIN +5.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
- Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · FTS%68.397
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Jalen WilliamsOKC4.8± 2.9high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
MIN
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
47.6%
118.5
PPG
114.9
116.8
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.0