NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10WSH

MIL

18-28

99109

WSH

12-34

NBAThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesWSH wins series 3-1VegasMIL -1.5

MIL · top performer

Myles Turner

C · #3

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 48pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. PortisF · #9	36	19	8-17	2-5	1-2	-21	7	3
K. KuzmaF · #18	35	19	8-18	0-3	3-3	-8	9	6
M. TurnerC · #3	39	21	8-16	2-6	3-3	+2	14	1
A. GreenG · #20	37	2	1-6	0-4	0-1	-10	2	3
R. RollinsG · #13	26	17	7-13	3-5	—	-3	3	8
Bench
P. NanceF · #35	20	13	6-10	1-3	—	-1	6	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	25	3	1-6	1-5	—	-1	0	2
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	0	0
C. AnthonyG · #50	18	5	2-11	1-6	—	-9	2	1
Team		99	41-98	10-38	7-9		43	25
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims, A. Coffey

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	26	13	4-9	1-4	4-4	+6	6	4
K. GeorgeF · #18	36	23	10-24	2-8	1-1	+2	5	5
A. SarrC · #20	32	16	6-13	1-3	3-4	+3	17	2
B. CoulibalyG · #0	28	8	3-6	0-1	2-2	+14	10	1
T. JohnsonG · #12	11	8	2-7	0-3	4-4	+10	0	2
Bench
J. ChampagnieF · #9	26	12	5-10	1-3	1-2	+9	6	1
M. BranhamG · #8	14	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	-2	3	0
J. WatkinsG · #5	21	4	1-7	0-3	2-2	+7	9	0
B. CarringtonG · #7	29	13	4-9	2-5	3-3	-2	4	6
W. RileyG · #27	18	6	1-5	1-3	3-4	+3	1	0
Team		109	38-96	8-35	25-28		61	21
DNP: A. Gill, S. Labissiere, AJ Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

41-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-96

FG %

10-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-35

7-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH wins series 3-1

Oct 23

WSH120@

MIL133

Dec 2

MIL126@

WSH129

Jan 1

WSH114@

MIL113

Jan 30

MIL99@

WSH109today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL-12556%

WSH+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat MIL 109-99. A. Sarr led with 16 PTS, 17 REB, 2 AST. WSH outscored the other side 32-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 35 REB · 21 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

21 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 10

WSHstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 38 REB · 14 AST

GS 59

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 23 REB · 7 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH3rd Quarter · 6:45 · 55-68

+48pp→ 88% WP

Bobby Portis · misses 24-foot three point jumper

MIL4th Quarter · 1:30 · 99-101

+12pp→ 24% WP

Myles Turner · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)

WSH4th Quarter · 40.5 · 99-104

+12pp→ 97% WP

Bub Carrington · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	23	20	29	27	99
WSH	25	32	25	27	109

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · WSH won 2

Portis 8

George 8

Portis 7

Champagnie 8

Turner 9

Portis 59

Kuzma 11

George 8

MIL

WSH

Shooting comparison

MIL

WSH

42%

41-98

40%

38-96

26%

10-38

3PT

23%

8-35

78%

7-9

89%

25-28

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 99·WSH 109
+0.8pp
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 99·WSH 109
Q4·6.5
Khris Middleton defensive rebound
MIL 99·WSH 109
Q4·8.9
Kyle Kuzma misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 99·WSH 109
Q4·14.3
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 99·WSH 109
Q4·14.3
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 99·WSH 108
Q4·14.3
AJ Green personal foul
MIL 99·WSH 107
Q4·14.3
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
MIL 99·WSH 107
Q4·14.4
Kyshawn George blocks Ryan Rollins 's 22-foot step back jumpshot
·
MIL 99·WSH 107
+0.5pp
Q4·23.7
Ryan Rollins enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.
·
MIL 99·WSH 107
−0.8pp
Q4·23.7
Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 99·WSH 107
Q4·23.7
Khris Middleton makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 99·WSH 106
Q4·23.7
AJ Green personal foul
MIL 99·WSH 105
+1pp
Q4·29.2
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
MIL 99·WSH 105
+0.7pp
Q4·32.4
AJ Green misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIL 99·WSH 105
+2pp
Q4·40.5
Bub Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 99·WSH 105
−2pp
Q4·40.5
Bub Carrington makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 99·WSH 104
+12pp
Q4·40.5
(00:40.5) [Bucks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Bucks] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIL 99·WSH 103
−9pp
Q4·40.5
Bucks Coach's Challenge
MIL 99·WSH 103
Q4·40.5
Myles Turner shooting foul
MIL 99·WSH 103
+4pp
Q4·49.4
Bilal Coulibaly offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIL 99·WSH 103
+5pp
Q4·51.4
Kyshawn George misses driving floating jump shot
MIL 99·WSH 103
−4pp
Q4·1:08
Alex Sarr defensive rebound
MIL 99·WSH 103
+2pp
Q4·1:09
Kyle Kuzma misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIL 99·WSH 103
+5pp
Q4·1:19
Alex Sarr makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Kyshawn George assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 99·WSH 103
+6pp
Q4·1:30
Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 99·WSH 101
−12pp
Q4·1:36
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
MIL 96·WSH 101
−1pp
Q4·1:38
Khris Middleton misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIL 96·WSH 101
−7pp
Q4·1:51
Kyle Kuzma loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 96·WSH 101
+5pp
Q4·1:51
Wizards defensive team rebound
MIL 96·WSH 101
+1pp

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 223.5·MIL -125/WSH +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ashington Wizards held off Milwaukee Bucks, 109–99.

WSH +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Kyshawn GeorgeWSH · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Alex SarrWSH
6.8± 2.8high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

WSH

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

112.9

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR