NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15CHA

CHA

20-28

11297

MEM

18-27

NBAWed, Jan 28FinalSeriesCHA leads series 1-0VegasCHA -2.5

CHA · top performer

Moussa Diabate

F · #14

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Jaren Jackson Jr.

F · #8

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:36

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	28	20	8-11	4-7	—	+32	6	3
M. DiabateF · #14	33	18	8-9	1-1	1-2	+30	19	2
B. MillerF · #24	30	26	9-17	4-8	4-4	+31	1	3
L. BallG · #1	23	16	6-14	4-9	—	+32	1	4
K. KnueppelG · #7	26	10	4-8	2-5	—	+23	1	6
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	20	2	1-5	0-2	—	-17	3	1
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	6	3-3	—	—	-15	4	0
C. SextonG · #8	17	6	2-10	0-3	2-2	-14	4	4
J. GreenG · #10	16	0	0-4	0-3	—	-12	1	0
T. MannG · #23	3	3	1-2	1-2	—	-4	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	22	5	2-5	1-2	—	-8	2	2
L. McNeeleyG · #33	6	0	0-2	—	—	-3	1	0
Team		112	44-90	17-42	7-8		43	25
DNP: T. Salaun, P. Connaughton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	33	26	10-20	4-9	2-2	-8	4	4
C. CowardF · #23	27	17	6-9	3-4	2-2	-4	2	5
J. WellsF · #0	25	6	3-8	0-3	—	-17	2	0
J. LandaleC · #31	26	10	4-9	1-4	1-2	-26	3	0
C. SpencerG · #24	28	4	1-8	0-6	2-2	-22	0	6
Bench
O. ProsperF · #18	11	4	1-2	1-1	1-2	+14	1	0
GG JacksonF · #45	24	12	5-8	1-2	1-2	-11	4	1
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	21	0	0-5	0-3	—	-11	2	4
J. KoncharG · #46	25	8	3-3	2-2	—	+3	6	3
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	20	10	4-9	2-6	—	+7	5	4
Team		97	37-81	14-40	9-12		29	27
DNP: T. Jerome, S. Pippen Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

44-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-81

FG %

17-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-40

7-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 1-0

Jan 29

CHA112@

MEM97today

Mar 21

MEM101@

CHA124

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-13557%

MEM+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat MEM 112-97. M. Diabate led with 18 PTS, 19 REB, 2 AST. CHA outscored the other side 36-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 80

Bench(7)

22 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 6

MEMstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 11 REB · 15 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA2nd Quarter · 7:34 · 45-43

+6pp→ 53% WP

LaMelo Ball · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)

MEM2nd Quarter · 5:30 · 48-46

+9pp→ 44% WP

GG Jackson · makes 22-foot running jump shot (John Konchar assists)

MEM2nd Quarter · 5:36 · 48-43

+10pp→ 38% WP

Miles Bridges · lost ball turnover (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	36	26	28	22	112
MEM	28	27	20	22	97

Period scoring

CHA won 2 · MEM won 1

Miller 14

Jr. 14

Ball 8

Jr. 8

Bridges 7

Knueppel 12

Diabate 12

Jr. 4

CHA

MEM

Shooting comparison

CHA

MEM

49%

44-90

46%

37-81

40%

17-42

3PT

35%

14-40

88%

7-8

75%

9-12

Play-by-play · 424 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 112·MEM 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 112·MEM 97
Q4·4.3
GG Jackson makes two point shot (Cam Spencer assists)
·
CHA 112·MEM 97
Q4·13.1
Sion James out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHA 112·MEM 95
Q4·22.6
Jaylen Wells personal foul
CHA 112·MEM 95
Q4·44.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 25-foot running jump shot (GG Jackson assists)
·
CHA 112·MEM 95
Q4·49.2
GG Jackson defensive rebound
CHA 112·MEM 92
Q4·52.3
Tre Mann misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 112·MEM 92
Q4·1:13
Jaylen Wells makes 1-foot running dunk (Cedric Coward assists)
·
CHA 112·MEM 92
Q4·1:13
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
CHA 112·MEM 90
Q4·1:17
Sion James misses two point shot
CHA 112·MEM 90
Q4·1:34
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
CHA 112·MEM 90
Q4·1:38
Cam Spencer misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 112·MEM 90
Q4·1:46
Tre Mann makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 112·MEM 90
Q4·1:56
Cedric Coward makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
CHA 109·MEM 90
Q4·2:20
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes 4-foot layup (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 109·MEM 88
Q4·2:40
Sion James defensive rebound
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:43
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:58
Tre Mann enters the game for Josh Green
·
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:58
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:58
GG Jackson enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.
·
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:58
Cedric Coward enters the game for Jock Landale
·
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:58
Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
·
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:58
Grizzlies Full timeout
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·2:58
Moussa Diabate makes 1-foot running dunk
CHA 107·MEM 88
Q4·3:01
Cam Spencer bad pass turnover (Moussa Diabate steals)
·
CHA 105·MEM 88
Q4·3:13
Moussa Diabate makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 105·MEM 88
Q4·3:32
Moussa Diabate defensive rebound
CHA 102·MEM 88
Q4·3:37
Jock Landale misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHA 102·MEM 88
Q4·3:48
Sion James steps out of bounds turnover
CHA 102·MEM 88

Betting line

CHA -2.5·O/U 231.5·CHA -135/MEM +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 112–97.

CHA -2.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

MEM

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

45.6%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR