NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11ATL

ATL

24-25

117106

BOS

29-18

NBAWed, Jan 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBOS -5.5

ATL · top performer

Dyson Daniels

G · #5

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Sam Hauser

F · #30

11.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 7:47

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	20	13	5-9	3-5	—	+10	2	1
O. OkongwuF · #17	29	17	6-12	2-6	3-4	+1	6	3
J. JohnsonF · #1	33	19	6-16	3-5	4-6	+23	14	7
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	31	21	7-15	5-12	2-2	+15	1	3
D. DanielsG · #5	35	15	7-11	1-1	—	+9	6	9
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	19	5	2-3	1-2	—	-8	4	2
C. KolokoC · #35	13	0	0-1	—	—	+14	2	1
C. McCollumG · #3	29	13	6-14	1-5	—	+12	3	3
L. KennardG · #4	24	9	4-7	1-3	0-1	-6	0	0
K. WallaceG · #2	1	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	0	0
V. KrejciG · #27	6	5	2-3	1-2	—	-10	0	0
Team		117	45-93	18-42	9-13		38	29
DNP: Z. Risacher

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	25	12	5-9	2-6	—	-12	7	1
A. WilliamsF · #77	15	2	1-3	—	—	-11	6	2
D. WhiteG · #9	31	11	5-13	1-5	—	0	4	3
J. BrownG · #7	29	21	9-20	0-5	3-4	-24	7	3
P. PritchardG · #11	28	12	5-11	0-3	2-2	-30	4	0
Bench
J. MinottF · #8	5	5	2-3	1-2	—	+8	1	0
L. GarzaC · #52	24	11	5-10	0-2	1-1	+3	6	6
A. SimonsG · #4	19	12	5-7	2-4	—	-4	1	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	17	6	1-5	0-3	4-5	+11	3	4
J. WalshG · #27	21	4	1-4	—	2-2	+7	7	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	27	10	3-4	3-4	1-2	-3	5	0
Team		106	42-89	9-34	13-16		51	21
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

45-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-89

FG %

18-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-34

9-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 18

BOS132@

ATL106

Jan 29

ATL117@

BOS106today

Mar 27

ATL102@

BOS109

Mar 30

BOS102@

ATL112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+17037%

BOS-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat BOS 117-106. D. Daniels led with 15 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST. ATL outscored the other side 38-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 23 AST

GS 78

Bench(6)

32 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

BOSstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 28 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

Bench(6)

48 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	38	22	27	30	117
BOS	18	28	30	30	106

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · BOS won 2

Johnson 8

Simons 8

McCollum 7

Garza 11

Okongwu 7

White 9

Alexander-Walker 8

Brown 24

ATL

BOS

Shooting comparison

ATL

BOS

48%

45-93

47%

42-89

43%

18-42

3PT

26%

9-34

69%

9-13

81%

13-16

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 117·BOS 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 117·BOS 106
Q4·23.9
Hugo Gonzalez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
ATL 117·BOS 106
Q4·35.5
Amari Williams defensive rebound
ATL 117·BOS 103
Q4·37.6
Keaton Wallace misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 117·BOS 103
Q4·40.6
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
ATL 117·BOS 103
Q4·43.7
Keaton Wallace misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 117·BOS 103
Q4·51.8
Amari Williams makes 1-foot layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
ATL 117·BOS 103
Q4·57.1
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·59.4
Hugo Gonzalez blocks Corey Kispert 's 5-foot driving layup
·
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·1:23
Vit Krejci enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·1:23
Luke Kennard enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·1:23
Keaton Wallace enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·1:23
Josh Minott out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·1:38
Amari Williams defensive rebound
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·1:40
Corey Kispert misses 28-foot running jump shot
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·1:42
Hugo Gonzalez lost ball turnover (CJ McCollum steals)
·
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·2:04
Mouhamed Gueye makes 22-foot jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)
·
ATL 117·BOS 101
Q4·2:28
Josh Minott makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)
·
ATL 115·BOS 101
Q4·2:31
Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
ATL 115·BOS 98
Q4·2:35
Baylor Scheierman misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 115·BOS 98
Q4·2:41
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
ATL 115·BOS 98
Q4·2:45
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 115·BOS 98
Q4·3:03
Josh Minott makes alley oop layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
ATL 115·BOS 98
Q4·3:06
Celtics offensive team rebound
ATL 115·BOS 96
Q4·3:08
Hugo Gonzalez misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 115·BOS 96
Q4·3:25
Corey Kispert enters the game for Jalen Johnson
·
ATL 115·BOS 96
Q4·3:25
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
ATL 115·BOS 96
Q4·3:25
Jalen Johnson personal take foul
ATL 115·BOS 96
Q4·3:28
Amari Williams defensive rebound
ATL 115·BOS 96

Betting line

BOS -5.5·O/U 232.5·ATL +170/BOS -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 117–106.

ATL +5.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Josh MinottBKN · F
TS%65.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

BOS

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR