LAL
28-18
CLE
29-20
LAL · top performer
Luka Doncic
G · #77
29
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
CLE · top performer
Donovan Mitchell
G · #45
25
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:11
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 11 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 5-6 | -23 | 3 | 5 | |
| 27 | 6 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 2-2 | -9 | 0 | 3 | |
| 19 | 10 | 4-4 | — | 2-2 | -20 | 4 | 2 | |
| 24 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | -18 | 3 | 0 | |
| 30 | 29 | 12-20 | 3-8 | 2-6 | -23 | 5 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0-7 | 0-2 | — | -17 | 2 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 | — | -11 | 6 | 2 | |
| 12 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | — | -8 | 2 | 0 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-4 | — | 1-2 | -6 | 5 | 1 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4-6 | 3-5 | — | -12 | 3 | 1 | |
| 8 | 8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | — | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 99 | 39-81 | 9-32 | 12-18 | 36 | 21 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 18 | 11 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +17 | 5 | 2 | |
| 24 | 17 | 8-11 | — | 1-2 | +24 | 9 | 2 | |
| 29 | 25 | 9-21 | 3-9 | 4-4 | +11 | 5 | 5 | |
| 24 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | +31 | 1 | 4 | |
| 29 | 20 | 8-15 | 3-7 | 1-1 | +29 | 6 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -14 | 3 | 0 | |
| 21 | 19 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 2-2 | +7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 29 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-2 | — | +8 | 4 | 3 | |
| 16 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-5 | — | +18 | 4 | 1 | |
| 12 | 0 | — | — | — | +8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 15 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | — | +16 | 1 | 3 | |
| 11 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | — | -5 | 0 | 3 | |
| Team | 129 | 51-97 | 17-44 | 10-13 | 46 | 32 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
53
21
Ast
32
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
39-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
51-97
48
FG %
53
9-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-44
12-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-13
21
Assists
32
16
Turnovers
8
Season series
CLE leads series 1-0
LAL99@CLE129todayCLE113@LAL127Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL+13642%CLE-16262%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CLE beat LAL 129-99. D. Mitchell paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. CLE outscored the other side 42-22 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs LAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 15 REB · 16 AST
GS 38
Bench(8)
41 PTS · 21 REB · 5 AST
GS 33
CLEstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 70
Bench(7)
52 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST
GS 52
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLarry Nance Jr. · misses 2-foot tip shot
Jake LaRavia · bad pass turnover (Dean Wade steals)
LeBron James · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 28 | 27 | 22 | 22 | 99 |
| CLE | 24 | 33 | 42 | 30 | 129 |
Period scoring
LAL won 1 · CLE won 3
Q1
LaRavia 6
Allen 6
Q2
Doncic 13
Smart 12
Q3
Doncic 14
Hunter 11
Q4
James 8
Bryant 8
Shooting comparison
48%
39-81
FG
53%
51-97
28%
9-32
3PT
39%
17-44
67%
12-18
FT
77%
10-13
Play-by-play · 434 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 99·CLE 129
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 99·CLE 129
- Q4·10.2
shot clock turnover
LAL 99·CLE 129
- Q4·34.4
Drew Timme makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot
LAL 99·CLE 129
- Q4·55.3
Tyrese Proctor makes layup (Lonzo Ball assists)
·
LAL 97·CLE 129
- Q4·1:16
Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound
LAL 97·CLE 127
- Q4·1:19
Jake LaRavia misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 97·CLE 127
- Q4·1:31
Tyrese Proctor makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 97·CLE 127
- Q4·1:42
Bronny James makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
LAL 97·CLE 124
- Q4·1:55
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
LAL 94·CLE 124
- Q4·1:58
Thomas Bryant misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 94·CLE 124
- Q4·2:14
Dalton Knecht makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)
·
LAL 94·CLE 124
- Q4·2:34
Tyrese Proctor makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 91·CLE 124
- Q4·2:53
Bronny James makes 25-foot three pointer
·
LAL 91·CLE 121
- Q4·3:13
Thomas Bryant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
LAL 88·CLE 121
- Q4·3:32
Bronny James makes 1-foot running dunk
·
LAL 88·CLE 118
- Q4·3:36
Lonzo Ball bad pass turnover (Bronny James steals)
· ·
LAL 86·CLE 118
- Q4·3:48
Drew Timme makes 10-foot turnaround jump shot
LAL 86·CLE 118
- Q4·3:50
Drew Timme offensive rebound
LAL 84·CLE 118
- Q4·3:54
Jake LaRavia misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 84·CLE 118
- Q4·4:21
Thomas Bryant makes dunk (Lonzo Ball assists)
·
LAL 84·CLE 118
- Q4·4:35
Jake LaRavia enters the game for Gabe Vincent
·
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·4:35
Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Sam Merrill
·
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·4:35
Cavaliers Full timeout
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·4:35
Lonzo Ball defensive rebound
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·4:38
Drew Timme misses 27-foot three point jumper
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·4:43
Bronny James defensive rebound
·
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·4:46
Sam Merrill misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·4:58
Lonzo Ball defensive rebound
LAL 84·CLE 116
- Q4·5:01
Gabe Vincent misses 26-foot three point jumper
LAL 84·CLE 116
Betting line
CLE -3.5·O/U 233.5·LAL +136/CLE -162
Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers held off Los Angeles Lakers, 129–99. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
CLE -3.5 cashed (won by 30). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort- Luka DoncicLAL · GUSG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399
Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.899- Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998
LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.997
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs LAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Austin ReavesLAL21.0± 6.8high
Rebounds
- Walker KesslerLAL10.7± 2.2low
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Austin ReavesLAL5.4± 2.6high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Walker KesslerLAL1.8± 2.5low
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Collin SextonLAL1.6± 1.3high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAL
league avg
CLE
57.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.6%
49.9%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
114.8
PPG
114.9
▶117.4
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.1
14.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.8