NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9OKC

12-37

95104

OKC

38-10

NBATue, Jan 27FinalSeriesOKC wins series 3-0VegasOKC -14.5

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Chet Holmgren

C · #7

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	27	9	3-12	1-9	2-2	0	5	5
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	34	21	8-11	—	5-5	+4	11	2
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	39	10	3-20	1-11	3-5	-4	5	5
D. QueenC · #22	26	9	4-11	—	1-1	0	7	1
S. BeyG · #41	33	16	4-16	3-6	5-5	+2	13	5
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	10	6	2-4	2-2	—	-14	2	0
Y. MissiC · #21	21	9	4-4	—	1-4	-9	6	2
J. AlvaradoG · #15	20	8	3-7	2-6	—	-10	3	4
M. PeavyG · #14	12	0	0-5	0-3	—	-12	0	0
J. FearsG · #0	18	7	3-9	1-3	—	-2	2	1
Team		95	34-99	10-40	17-22		54	25
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	27	4	1-8	0-3	2-2	+2	10	5
C. HolmgrenC · #7	33	20	8-14	1-3	3-3	+4	14	3
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	36	29	8-22	0-3	13-14	+14	6	4
L. DortG · #5	34	12	4-12	4-9	—	+8	8	3
A. WigginsG · #21	34	13	4-11	2-6	3-4	+6	5	1
Bench
B. BarnhizerF · #23	5	0	—	—	—	+5	1	0
O. DiengF · #13	19	4	2-5	0-2	—	-11	4	2
B. CarlsonC · #15	6	2	1-2	0-1	—	+2	0	0
K. WilliamsG · #34	21	3	1-2	1-1	—	+6	2	4
I. JoeG · #11	24	17	6-11	5-10	—	+9	3	3
Team		104	35-87	13-38	21-23		53	25
DNP: A. Caruso, C. Youngblood

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

34-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-87

FG %

10-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-38

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 3-0

Nov 2

NO106@

OKC137

Nov 18

OKC126@

NO109

Jan 28

NO95@

OKC104today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+57515%

OKC-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -14.5↗SpreadBet OKC -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat NO 104-95. C. Holmgren led with 20 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST. OKC outscored the other side 31-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 41 REB · 18 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

OKCstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 43 REB · 16 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 10 REB · 9 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO1st Quarter · 25.9 · 12-16

+7pp→ 13% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · lost ball turnover (Trey Murphy III steals)

NO2nd Quarter · 10:34 · 21-17

+9pp→ 27% WP

Zion Williamson · out of bounds lost ball turnover

NO3rd Quarter · 7:04 · 56-62

+9pp→ 16% WP

Aaron Wiggins · misses 2-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	14	32	23	26	95
OKC	17	31	31	25	104

Period scoring

NO won 2 · OKC won 2

Queen 4

Holmgren 4

Williamson 6

Gilgeous-Alexander 36

Williamson 7

Dieng 37

Williamson 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

34%

34-99

40%

35-87

25%

10-40

3PT

34%

13-38

77%

17-22

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·0.2
Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·2.8
Herbert Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·3.6
Herbert Jones offensive rebound
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·7.4
Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·12.7
Herbert Jones offensive rebound
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·16.7
Trey Murphy III misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·29.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 95·OKC 104
Q4·29.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 95·OKC 103
Q4·29.7
Jeremiah Fears personal foul
NO 95·OKC 102
+0.5pp
Q4·30.9
Saddiq Bey makes 2-foot two point shot (Herbert Jones assists)
·
NO 95·OKC 102
Q4·34.5
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Yves Missi
·
NO 93·OKC 102
Q4·34.5
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jaylin Williams
·
NO 93·OKC 102
Q4·34.5
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 93·OKC 102
Q4·34.5
Jaylin Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
NO 93·OKC 102
Q4·34.5
Jaylin Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
NO 93·OKC 101
Q4·34.5
Yves Missi shooting foul
NO 93·OKC 100
+0.5pp
Q4·34.8
Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
·
NO 93·OKC 100
+1pp
Q4·36.6
Luguentz Dort misses 9-foot jumper
NO 93·OKC 100
−0.9pp
Q4·40.0
Luguentz Dort offensive rebound
NO 93·OKC 100
+1pp
Q4·43.4
Yves Missi blocks Jaylin Williams 's 2-foot dunk
· ·
NO 93·OKC 100
−0.6pp
Q4·55.8
Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Herbert Jones assists)
· ·
NO 93·OKC 100
−0.5pp
Q4·1:03
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 7-foot two point shot (Jaylin Williams assists)
· ·
NO 91·OKC 100
+0.8pp
Q4·1:10
Yves Missi vs. Luguentz Dort (Jaylin Williams gains possession)
· ·
NO 91·OKC 98
Q4·1:10
Luguentz Dort offensive rebound
NO 91·OKC 98
+1pp
Q4·1:13
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses layup
NO 91·OKC 98
−2pp
Q4·1:15
Saddiq Bey personal foul
NO 91·OKC 98
+2pp
Q4·1:18
Double technical foul: Saddiq Bey and Jaylin Williams
· ·
NO 91·OKC 98
Q4·1:18
(01:18) [Pelicans] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
NO 91·OKC 98
−2pp

Betting line

OKC -14.5·O/U 233.5·NO +575/OKC -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off New Orleans Pelicans, 104–95.

NO +14.5 cashed (OKC won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 34.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jalen WilliamsOKC
4.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

OKC

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

115.5

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

13.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR