NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17PHI

MIL

18-27

122139

PHI

25-21

NBATue, Jan 27FinalSeriesPHI leads series 3-0VegasPHI -10.5

MIL · top performer

Myles Turner

C · #3

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Paul George

F · #8

26.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 15pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. PortisF · #9	36	17	8-16	0-3	1-3	-4	12	8
K. KuzmaF · #18	32	17	6-12	2-4	3-4	-5	8	8
M. TurnerC · #3	35	31	10-16	4-8	7-8	-6	4	3
A. GreenG · #20	29	8	3-6	2-4	—	-1	2	3
R. RollinsG · #13	39	24	9-17	2-4	4-5	-4	8	4
Bench
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	2	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
P. NanceF · #35	2	2	1-2	—	—	-3	0	0
J. SimsC · #00	11	0	—	—	—	-11	1	0
G. HarrisG · #11	14	0	—	—	—	-9	1	2
A. CoffeyG · #17	2	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	21	13	4-9	4-9	1-3	-16	0	0
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	2	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
C. AnthonyG · #50	14	10	3-8	1-2	3-4	-17	1	1
Team		122	44-86	15-34	19-27		38	29

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	33	32	11-21	9-15	1-2	+13	5	5
J. EmbiidC · #21	29	29	11-24	1-4	6-6	+6	9	5
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	23	7	3-6	0-2	1-2	+1	4	0
T. MaxeyG · #0	36	22	9-19	2-8	2-2	+5	3	9
V. EdgecombeG · #77	31	12	4-7	3-3	1-2	+4	8	7
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	6	2	1-2	—	—	+8	1	3
J. WalkerF · #33	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
J. BroomeF · #22	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. EdwardsF · #11	24	8	3-5	2-4	—	+14	3	1
D. BarlowF · #25	12	4	2-3	—	—	+7	4	2
A. BonaC · #30	17	6	3-6	—	0-1	+10	8	0
J. McCainG · #20	24	17	6-8	5-6	—	+13	1	3
Team		139	53-101	22-42	11-15		46	35
DNP: A. Drummond, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

44-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

53-101

FG %

15-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

22-42

19-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 3-0

Nov 21

PHI123@

MIL114

Dec 6

PHI116@

MIL101

Jan 28

MIL122@

PHI139today

Apr 12

MIL106@

PHI126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+30025%

PHI-38079%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -10.5↗SpreadBet PHI -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat MIL 139-122. P. George paced them with 32 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. PHI outscored the other side 42-34 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 34 REB · 26 AST

GS 93

Bench(8)

25 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

PHIstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 29 REB · 26 AST

GS 90

Bench(7)

37 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL3rd Quarter · 6:58 · 79-81

+10pp→ 45% WP

Kelly Oubre Jr. · personal foul

MIL3rd Quarter · 6:31 · 79-81

+10pp→ 46% WP

VJ Edgecombe · shooting foul

MIL3rd Quarter · 6:35 · 79-81

+15pp→ 39% WP

Joel Embiid · lost ball turnover (Kyle Kuzma steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	34	28	33	27	122
PHI	42	29	35	33	139

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · PHI won 4

Turner 12

Embiid 18

Rollins 7

Maxey 10

Turner 9

George 16

Kuzma 5

McCain 12

MIL

PHI

Shooting comparison

MIL

PHI

51%

44-86

52%

53-101

44%

15-34

3PT

52%

22-42

70%

19-27

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 122·PHI 139
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 122·PHI 139
Q4·13.2
Justin Edwards defensive rebound
MIL 122·PHI 139
Q4·16.4
Pete Nance misses 10-foot floating jump shot
MIL 122·PHI 139
Q4·31.5
Justin Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)
·
MIL 122·PHI 139
Q4·45.9
Pete Nance makes driving layup (Cole Anthony assists)
·
MIL 122·PHI 136
Q4·55.6
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
MIL 120·PHI 136
Q4·1:00
Trendon Watford misses 15-foot fade away jump shot
MIL 120·PHI 136
Q4·1:23
76ers defensive team rebound
MIL 120·PHI 136
Q4·1:24
Cole Anthony misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 120·PHI 136
Q4·1:28
Johni Broome enters the game for Adem Bona
·
MIL 120·PHI 136
Q4·1:47
Dominick Barlow makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot
MIL 120·PHI 136
Q4·2:04
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:07
Cole Anthony misses 6-foot two point shot
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:15
Jabari Walker enters the game for VJ Edgecombe
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:15
Adem Bona enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:15
Trendon Watford enters the game for Jared McCain
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:15
Justin Edwards enters the game for Tyrese Maxey
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:15
Tyrese Maxey personal take foul
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:20
shot clock turnover
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:23
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for AJ Green
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:23
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Ryan Rollins
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:23
Amir Coffey enters the game for Bobby Portis
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:23
Pete Nance enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:23
Cole Anthony enters the game for Myles Turner
·
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:45
Ryan Rollins makes running layup
MIL 120·PHI 134
Q4·2:49
Myles Turner defensive rebound
MIL 118·PHI 134
Q4·2:52
Joel Embiid misses 8-foot two point shot
MIL 118·PHI 134
Q4·3:03
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
MIL 118·PHI 134
Q4·3:05
Myles Turner misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 118·PHI 134

Betting line

PHI -10.5·O/U 219.5·MIL +300/PHI -380

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Milwaukee Bucks, 139–122.

PHI -10.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 41.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Jaylen BrownPHI
6.1± 2.6high
VJ EdgecombePHI
6.1± 2.7high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
Jaylen BrownPHI
0.7± 1.2high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

PHI

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.3

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR