NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16NY

SAC

12-36

87103

28-18

NBATue, Jan 27FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -14.5

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 10:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	24	6	3-7	0-2	—	-8	5	0
D. SabonisF · #11	33	11	5-10	0-2	1-2	-17	12	7
R. WestbrookG · #18	33	14	6-19	2-9	—	-17	4	5
D. DeRozanG · #10	39	34	13-26	1-7	7-8	-17	5	0
N. CliffordG · #5	30	7	3-8	1-3	—	-2	3	1
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	22	4	2-3	—	—	-6	10	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	15	4	1-2	—	2-2	+1	3	0
D. SchroderG · #17	23	4	1-8	0-3	2-2	-12	1	4
K. EllisG · #23	22	3	1-4	1-4	—	-2	1	1
Team		87	35-87	5-30	12-14		44	18
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, K. Murray, D. Carter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	32	15	5-7	3-4	2-2	+5	2	0
K. TownsC · #32	27	17	5-15	3-8	4-4	-3	11	4
J. HartG · #3	31	7	2-6	0-2	3-3	-2	9	4
M. BridgesG · #25	38	18	8-13	2-3	—	+14	3	5
J. BrunsonG · #11	35	28	9-17	4-8	6-7	+17	3	4
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	0	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	27	7	3-5	—	1-2	+25	13	0
L. ShametG · #44	17	2	1-3	—	—	+1	1	3
M. McBrideG · #2	30	9	4-11	1-6	—	+20	2	4
Team		103	37-78	13-32	16-18		44	24
DNP: P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, J. Clarkson, T. Kolek

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

Home

35-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-78

FG %

5-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-32

12-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 15

NY101@

SAC112

Jan 28

SAC87@

NY103today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+55015%

NY-80089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -14.5↗SpreadBet NY -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat SAC 103-87. J. Brunson paced them with 28 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. NY outscored the other side 31-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST

GS 45

Bench(4)

15 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

NYstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 11:40 · 72-75

+8pp→ 72% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)

NY4th Quarter · 10:26 · 72-75

+12pp→ 75% WP

Dennis Schroder · misses 24-foot three point jumper

NY4th Quarter · 4:31 · 83-90

+8pp→ 91% WP

Mikal Bridges · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	26	25	21	15	87
NY	36	16	20	31	103

Period scoring

SAC won 2 · NY won 2

DeRozan 9

Brunson 10

DeRozan 13

Hart 5

DeRozan 6

Anunoby 5

DeRozan 6

Brunson 11

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

40%

35-87

47%

37-78

17%

5-30

3PT

41%

13-32

86%

12-14

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 437 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 87·NY 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 87·NY 103
Q4·8.0
shot clock turnover
SAC 87·NY 103
Q4·32.1
Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot
SAC 87·NY 103
Q4·32.2
Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound
SAC 85·NY 103
Q4·34.0
Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot three point jumper
SAC 85·NY 103
Q4·45.8
Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
SAC 85·NY 103
Q4·55.0
Mitchell Robinson offensive rebound
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·57.9
Miles McBride misses 22-foot three point jumper
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:19
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:22
DeMar DeRozan misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:25
Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:26
Russell Westbrook misses driving layup
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:36
Miles McBride offensive foul turnover
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:36
Miles McBride offensive foul
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:54
Jalen Brunson makes technical free throw
SAC 85·NY 100
Q4·1:54
excess timeout turnover
SAC 85·NY 99
Q4·1:54
excess timeout technical foul
SAC 85·NY 99
Q4·1:54
Kings Full timeout
SAC 85·NY 99
Q4·2:02
Keon Ellis enters the game for Precious Achiuwa
·
SAC 85·NY 99
Q4·2:02
Nique Clifford enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
SAC 85·NY 99
Q4·2:02
Kings Full timeout
SAC 85·NY 99
Q4·2:02
OG Anunoby makes running dunk (Mikal Bridges assists)
·
SAC 85·NY 99
Q4·2:06
Precious Achiuwa lost ball turnover (OG Anunoby steals)
·
SAC 85·NY 97
Q4·2:19
Jalen Brunson makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
SAC 85·NY 97
Q4·2:32
Russell Westbrook personal foul
SAC 85·NY 95
Q4·2:40
Miles McBride defensive rebound
SAC 85·NY 95
Q4·2:43
Russell Westbrook misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
SAC 85·NY 95
+0.8pp
Q4·3:07
Knicks Full timeout
SAC 85·NY 95
Q4·3:07
Kings Full timeout
SAC 85·NY 95

Betting line

NY -14.5·O/U 225.5·SAC +550/NY -800

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off Sacramento Kings, 103–87.

NY -14.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.693
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
Jalen BrunsonNY
1.2± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

116.4

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR