NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4WSH

POR

23-25

111115

WSH

11-34

NBATue, Jan 27FinalSeriesWSH leads series 1-0VegasPOR -7.5

POR · top performer

Shaedon Sharpe

G · #17

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 5:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	33	16	6-11	4-6	0-2	+2	9	4
D. AvdijaF · #8	31	17	6-14	3-5	2-6	-9	12	3
D. ClinganC · #23	30	14	6-17	0-3	2-2	-17	20	2
J. HolidayG · #5	25	5	2-14	0-4	1-3	+3	7	5
S. SharpeG · #17	35	31	11-20	5-9	4-4	-10	4	2
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	24	6	3-10	0-5	—	-1	4	0
Y. HansenC · #16	12	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	+11	5	1
C. LoveG · #2	17	6	2-8	0-1	2-4	-5	2	1
S. CissokoG · #91	15	0	0-3	0-2	—	+5	0	0
R. RupertG · #21	19	10	4-6	2-2	—	+1	6	1
Team		111	42-109	14-38	13-23		69	19
DNP: K. Murray, R. Williams III, D. Reath, M. Thybulle, J. Cooke

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	27	19	7-14	1-2	4-4	+15	6	5
K. GeorgeF · #18	37	19	5-16	4-10	5-6	+19	9	5
A. SarrC · #20	36	29	11-29	3-9	4-5	+16	12	3
B. CoulibalyG · #0	28	5	1-2	1-1	2-2	+19	5	6
T. JohnsonG · #12	32	18	7-13	3-5	1-1	+4	4	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	6	2	1-2	—	—	-8	2	1
J. ChampagnieF · #9	18	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	-9	3	1
S. LabissiereC · #17	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	1	0
M. BranhamG · #8	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	+4	0	0
J. WatkinsG · #5	12	2	1-4	0-1	—	-16	2	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	28	11	4-11	2-6	1-1	-6	1	1
W. RileyG · #27	11	6	2-3	2-2	—	-10	1	2
Team		115	40-98	17-39	18-21		46	27
DNP: AJ Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

42-109

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-98

FG %

14-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-39

13-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Jan 28

POR111@

WSH115today

Mar 29

WSH88@

POR123

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR-25872%

WSH+21032%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -7.5↗SpreadBet POR -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat POR 115-111. A. Sarr paced them with 29 PTS, 12 REB, 3 AST. WSH outscored the other side 34-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 52 REB · 16 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

WSHstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 36 REB · 21 AST

GS 91

Bench(7)

25 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH4th Quarter · 2:53 · 104-106

+16pp→ 64% WP

Kyshawn George · makes 28-foot three pointer (Bilal Coulibaly assists)

POR4th Quarter · 5:35 · 99-98

+41pp→ 55% WP

Jrue Holiday · misses 1-foot tip shot

POR4th Quarter · 25.2 · 109-112

+20pp→ 40% WP

Kyshawn George · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	28	25	34	24	111
WSH	26	34	26	29	115

Period scoring

POR won 2 · WSH won 2

Avdija 9

Sarr 8

Sharpe 7

Avdija 22

Camara 8

Johnson 9

Sharpe 12

Carrington 22

POR

WSH

Shooting comparison

POR

WSH

39%

42-109

41%

40-98

37%

14-38

3PT

44%

17-39

57%

13-23

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 111·WSH 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 111·WSH 115
+0.8pp
Q4·2.0
Kyshawn George defensive rebound
POR 111·WSH 115
+2pp
Q4·4.5
Shaedon Sharpe misses 22-foot three point shot
POR 111·WSH 115
+4pp
Q4·6.5
Shaedon Sharpe enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 111·WSH 115
Q4·6.5
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 111·WSH 115
Q4·6.5
Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 111·WSH 115
−3pp
Q4·6.5
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe
·
POR 111·WSH 114
Q4·6.5
Khris Middleton makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 111·WSH 114
+0.8pp
Q4·6.5
Toumani Camara personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 111·WSH 113
+7pp
Q4·7.1
Khris Middleton defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 111·WSH 113
+8pp
Q4·9.7
Shaedon Sharpe misses 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
POR 111·WSH 113
+12pp
Q4·15.5
Shaedon Sharpe enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 111·WSH 113
Q4·15.5
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 111·WSH 113
Q4·15.5
Kyshawn George makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 111·WSH 113
−1pp
Q4·15.5
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe
·
POR 111·WSH 112
Q4·15.5
Wizards offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 111·WSH 112
−9pp
Q4·15.5
Kyshawn George misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 111·WSH 112
−7pp
Q4·15.5
Toumani Camara personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 111·WSH 112
+17pp
Q4·20.5
Shaedon Sharpe makes 1-foot driving dunkBIG MOMENT
POR 111·WSH 112
+9pp
Q4·25.2
Kyshawn George personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 109·WSH 112
−20pp
Q4·29.6
Jamir Watkins enters the game for Bub Carrington
·
POR 109·WSH 112
Q4·29.6
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
POR 109·WSH 112
−9pp
Q4·31.1
Wizards offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 109·WSH 112
+7pp
Q4·31.1
Bub Carrington misses 21-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
POR 109·WSH 112
+35pp
Q4·53.5
Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three pointer (Jrue Holiday assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 109·WSH 112
−8pp
Q4·1:01
Kyshawn George makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 106·WSH 112
−2pp
Q4·1:01
Kyshawn George makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 106·WSH 111
+0.8pp
Q4·1:01
Jerami Grant shooting foulBIG MOMENT
POR 106·WSH 110
+6pp
Q4·1:04
Deni Avdija lost ball turnover (Kyshawn George steals)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 106·WSH 110
+6pp

Betting line

POR -7.5·O/U 232.5·POR -258/WSH +210

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ashington Wizards held off Portland Trail Blazers, 115–111. Decided by 4.

WSH +7.5 cashed (POR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

WSH

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.5%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.3%

114.6

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR