NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9HOU

MEM

18-26

99108

HOU

28-16

NBAMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesHOU leads series 2-0VegasHOU -11.5

MEM · top performer

Santi Aldama

F · #7

14.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

28.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:08

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	32	17	8-17	1-5	—	-10	7	1
S. AldamaF · #7	27	17	7-12	1-2	2-3	-5	7	2
C. CowardF · #23	30	8	3-13	0-2	2-3	-14	7	2
J. WellsF · #0	26	12	4-13	1-6	3-3	-9	6	0
C. SpencerG · #24	27	5	1-5	0-3	3-3	-5	5	13
Bench
O. ProsperF · #18	11	8	2-4	2-2	2-2	+1	3	0
GG JacksonF · #45	27	14	6-16	0-6	2-3	-4	3	1
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	18	11	5-9	1-4	—	+5	3	1
J. KoncharG · #46	20	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	3	1
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	21	7	3-15	1-6	—	-4	8	5
Team		99	39-105	7-37	14-17		52	26
DNP: S. Pippen Jr., J. Small

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	33	11-24	4-9	7-9	+1	8	2
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	34	8	2-6	2-6	2-2	+6	8	2
T. EasonF · #17	27	17	6-17	4-8	1-2	+10	7	0
A. SengunC · #28	34	33	15-17	0-1	3-4	+12	9	6
A. ThompsonG · #1	42	8	3-10	0-1	2-2	+11	8	14
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	3	1-4	1-3	—	+9	2	2
J. TateF · #8	4	0	—	—	—	-2	1	1
C. CapelaC · #30	7	0	—	—	—	-7	3	0
J. OkogieG · #20	25	2	1-3	0-2	0-1	+7	7	2
R. SheppardG · #15	15	4	2-11	0-7	—	-2	4	0
Team		108	41-92	11-37	15-20		57	29
DNP: J. Green, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

39-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-92

FG %

7-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-37

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU leads series 2-0

Nov 6

HOU124@

MEM109

Jan 27

MEM99@

HOU108today

Mar 28

HOU119@

MEM109

Apr 13

MEM101@

HOU132

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+39020%

HOU-52084%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -11.5↗SpreadBet HOU -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat MEM 108-99. A. Sengun paced them with 33 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. HOU outscored the other side 32-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 32 REB · 18 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

40 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 28

HOUstarters 92% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 40 REB · 24 AST

GS 83

Bench(5)

9 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU3rd Quarter · 1:08 · 77-71

+10pp→ 32% WP

Olivier-Maxence Prosper · traveling turnover

HOU3rd Quarter · 50.4 · 77-74

+9pp→ 41% WP

Kevin Durant · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 10:58 · 79-81

+10pp→ 64% WP

Dorian Finney-Smith · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	24	30	23	22	99
HOU	23	28	25	32	108

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · HOU won 2

Prosper 6

Eason 9

Jr. 7

Durant 8

Aldama 7

Durant 12

Jackson 4

Full 13

MEM

HOU

Shooting comparison

MEM

HOU

37%

39-105

45%

41-92

19%

7-37

3PT

30%

11-37

82%

14-17

75%

15-20

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 99·HOU 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 99·HOU 108
Q4·13.4
Santi Aldama bad pass turnover (Tari Eason steals)
·
MEM 99·HOU 108
Q4·15.4
Kevin Durant enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
MEM 99·HOU 108
Q4·15.4
Kevin Durant enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
MEM 99·HOU 108
+1pp
Q4·15.4
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 99·HOU 108
Q4·15.4
Tari Eason makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 99·HOU 108
Q4·15.4
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·15.4
Rockets offensive team rebound
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·15.4
Tari Eason misses free throw 1 of 2
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·15.4
GG Jackson personal foul
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·21.2
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·24.0
Cedric Coward misses layup
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·25.4
Cam Spencer offensive rebound
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·29.2
GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 99·HOU 107
+0.7pp
Q4·40.8
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
−1pp
Q4·40.8
Cam Spencer enters the game for John Konchar
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·40.8
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·40.8
Reed Sheppard steps out of bounds turnover
MEM 99·HOU 107
−1pp
Q4·51.3
John Konchar personal take foul
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·52.6
John Konchar enters the game for Cam Spencer
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·52.6
Jabari Smith Jr. enters the game for Tari Eason
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·52.6
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·52.6
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·52.6
Rockets Full timeout
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·52.6
Cam Spencer makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Santi Aldama assists)
·
MEM 99·HOU 107
Q4·1:02
Cam Spencer offensive rebound
MEM 97·HOU 107
Q4·1:06
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
·
MEM 97·HOU 107
Q4·1:13
Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)
·
MEM 97·HOU 107
+1pp
Q4·1:28
Santi Aldama makes 5-foot two point shot
MEM 97·HOU 104

Betting line

HOU -11.5·O/U 225.5·MEM +390/HOU -520

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Memphis Grizzlies, 108–99.

MEM +11.5 cashed (HOU won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

HOU

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

114.7

PPG

114.9

114.1

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR