NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16ATL

IND

11-36

116132

ATL

23-25

NBAMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesATL leads series 2-0VegasATL -5.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Dyson Daniels

G · #5

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	35	26	8-21	2-9	8-9	-3	9	4
J. WalkerF · #5	30	12	4-8	2-4	2-2	0	7	3
A. NembhardG · #2	30	6	3-10	0-2	0-1	+2	5	13
A. NesmithG · #23	29	18	6-11	3-6	3-4	+3	2	4
J. FurphyG · #12	18	6	2-5	0-2	2-2	+15	5	1
Bench
I. JacksonF · #22	12	4	2-3	—	—	-12	5	0
J. HuffC · #32	3	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	1	1
M. PotterC · #11	20	4	2-8	0-4	—	-19	5	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	18	16	7-11	0-1	2-2	-18	1	3
E. ThompsonG · #55	1	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
B. SheppardG · #26	14	2	1-3	0-2	—	-17	0	0
Q. JacksonG · #29	1	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	-1	0	0
B. MathurinG · #00	25	16	6-10	2-3	2-3	-25	2	1
K. JonesG · #7	1	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
Team		116	43-93	10-35	20-25		42	31
DNP: T. Bradley

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	17	7	2-8	0-4	3-3	-25	0	3
O. OkongwuF · #17	31	12	5-13	2-6	—	+7	10	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	35	15	5-19	1-7	4-4	0	7	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	34	21	5-13	5-10	6-6	+10	3	3
D. DanielsG · #5	35	22	10-15	1-3	1-2	+2	5	9
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	13	7	3-4	1-2	—	+16	6	1
C. KolokoC · #35	17	12	6-6	—	—	+9	4	1
C. McCollumG · #3	28	23	9-15	5-7	—	+27	8	7
L. KennardG · #4	23	13	4-4	3-3	2-2	+26	2	3
K. WallaceG · #2	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
V. KrejciG · #27	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	+6	1	0
Team		132	49-98	18-43	16-17		46	35
DNP: Z. Risacher

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

43-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-98

FG %

10-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-43

20-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

Oct 31

ATL128@

IND108

Jan 26

IND116@

ATL132today

Feb 1

ATL124@

IND129

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+18535%

ATL-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat IND 132-116. D. Daniels led with 22 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. ATL outscored the other side 37-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 28 REB · 25 AST

GS 65

Bench(9)

48 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 33

ATLstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 25 REB · 23 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

55 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 59

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 2:56 · 57-49

+11pp→ 64% WP

Jalen Johnson · blocks Jarace Walker 's 4-foot tip shot

IND3rd Quarter · 11:51 · 67-60

+10pp→ 63% WP

Aaron Nesmith · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 8:50 · 76-68

+16pp→ 31% WP

Jarace Walker · bad pass turnover (Jalen Johnson steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	38	26	28	24	116
ATL	34	26	35	37	132

Period scoring

IND won 1 · ATL won 2

Mathurin 10

Alexander-Walker 8

McConnell 6

Johnson 10

Siakam 17

Kispert 14

McConnell 4

Alexander-Walker 8

IND

ATL

Shooting comparison

IND

ATL

46%

43-93

50%

49-98

29%

10-35

3PT

42%

18-43

80%

20-25

94%

16-17

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 116·ATL 132
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 116·ATL 132
Q4·19.1
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
IND 116·ATL 132
Q4·22.0
Quenton Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
IND 116·ATL 132
Q4·28.5
Mouhamed Gueye makes driving layup
IND 116·ATL 132
Q4·48.3
Quenton Jackson makes 1-foot two point shot
·
IND 116·ATL 130
Q4·56.7
Mouhamed Gueye makes dunk
IND 114·ATL 130
Q4·56.7
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
IND 114·ATL 128
Q4·1:00
Corey Kispert misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 114·ATL 128
Q4·1:20
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
·
IND 114·ATL 128
Q4·1:20
Vit Krejci enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
· ·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:20
Keaton Wallace enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:20
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:20
Quenton Jackson misses free throw 1 of 2
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:20
Christian Koloko personal foul
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Jalen Johnson
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Corey Kispert enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Quenton Jackson enters the game for Pascal Siakam
· ·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Ethan Thompson enters the game for Jarace Walker
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Kam Jones enters the game for Andrew Nembhard
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Christian Koloko enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Pacers Full timeout
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:26
Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)
·
IND 113·ATL 128
Q4·1:43
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
IND 113·ATL 125
Q4·1:46
Pascal Siakam misses 24-foot running jump shot
IND 113·ATL 125
Q4·1:50
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
IND 113·ATL 125
Q4·1:53
Dyson Daniels misses 2-foot reverse layup
IND 113·ATL 125
Q4·2:17
Jay Huff makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)
·
IND 113·ATL 125
Q4·2:29
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 110·ATL 125
Q4·2:29
Bennedict Mathurin enters the game for Aaron Nesmith
·
IND 110·ATL 124

Betting line

ATL -5.5·O/U 234.5·IND +185/ATL -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Indiana Pacers, 132–116.

ATL -5.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

ATL

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

27.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR