NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16CLE

ORL

23-22

98114

CLE

28-20

NBAMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesCLE leads series 2-0VegasCLE -4.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

32.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 27.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	40	37	13-21	2-5	9-13	-14	10	4
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	34	9	4-8	1-4	—	-13	7	1
D. BaneG · #3	38	19	7-17	3-7	2-2	-17	4	0
J. SuggsG · #4	27	4	2-13	0-5	—	-6	5	6
A. BlackG · #0	37	14	6-14	2-9	—	-14	4	5
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	12	5	2-9	1-3	—	-5	3	0
J. IsaacF · #1	5	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	9	5	2-4	1-2	—	-2	1	1
N. PendaF · #93	14	2	1-4	0-1	—	-2	3	1
T. JonesG · #2	18	3	1-3	1-2	—	+1	3	3
J. RichardsonG · #11	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	1	0
Team		98	38-94	11-39	11-15		42	21
DNP: G. Bitadze, J. Howard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	29	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	+21	7	2
J. AllenC · #31	33	9	4-6	—	1-3	+18	4	1
E. MobleyC · #4	35	20	9-16	1-3	1-4	+5	9	2
D. MitchellG · #45	35	45	15-25	5-8	10-12	+23	4	4
J. TysonG · #20	35	14	5-10	2-3	2-2	+12	9	4
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	6	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	1	0
N. TomlinF · #35	24	8	2-7	1-4	3-4	-5	3	1
L. BallG · #2	14	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	1	1
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	15	4	2-5	0-1	—	+5	5	5
T. ProctorG · #24	14	6	2-3	2-2	—	+3	2	3
Team		114	42-79	11-25	19-27		45	23
DNP: D. Hunter, T. Bryant

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

38-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-79

FG %

11-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-25

11-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE leads series 2-0

Jan 25

CLE119@

ORL105

Jan 27

ORL98@

CLE114today

Mar 11

CLE122@

ORL128

Mar 25

ORL131@

CLE136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+17037%

CLE-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat ORL 114-98. D. Mitchell led the way with 45 points and 4 assists. CLE outscored the other side 39-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST

GS 64

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

CLEstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 33 REB · 13 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL2nd Quarter · 5:41 · 47-45

+6pp→ 46% WP

Wendell Carter Jr. · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)

CLE2nd Quarter · 27.9 · 56-59

+7pp→ 66% WP

Jaylon Tyson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)

ORL3rd Quarter · 11:07 · 60-61

+7pp→ 38% WP

Paolo Banchero · makes 14-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	32	24	25	17	98
CLE	22	39	30	23	114

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · CLE won 3

Bane 10

Mitchell 10

Banchero 9

Mitchell 16

Banchero 15

Mitchell 12

Banchero 8

Mitchell 7

ORL

CLE

Shooting comparison

ORL

CLE

40%

38-94

53%

42-79

28%

11-39

3PT

44%

11-25

73%

11-15

70%

19-27

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 98·CLE 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 98·CLE 114
Q4·19.0
shot clock turnover
ORL 98·CLE 114
Q4·40.3
Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound
ORL 98·CLE 114
Q4·44.2
Anthony Black misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 98·CLE 114
Q4·48.7
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 98·CLE 114
Q4·48.7
Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Dean Wade
·
ORL 98·CLE 113
Q4·48.7
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 98·CLE 113
Q4·48.7
Jalen Suggs personal take foul
ORL 98·CLE 112
Q4·1:00
Paolo Banchero makes driving dunk
ORL 98·CLE 112
Q4·1:05
Evan Mobley makes driving layup
ORL 96·CLE 112
Q4·1:22
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
ORL 96·CLE 110
Q4·1:25
Desmond Bane misses driving layup
ORL 96·CLE 110
Q4·1:38
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 96·CLE 110
Q4·1:38
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 96·CLE 109
Q4·1:38
Desmond Bane personal foul
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·1:45
Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·1:48
Paolo Banchero misses 12-foot two point shot
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·1:57
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:01
Donovan Mitchell misses driving layup
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:10
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:12
Jalen Suggs misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:24
Jalen Suggs defensive rebound
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:26
Jaylon Tyson misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:32
Dean Wade defensive rebound
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:36
Paolo Banchero misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:55
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 96·CLE 108
Q4·2:55
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 96·CLE 107
Q4·2:55
Jalen Suggs enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
ORL 96·CLE 106
Q4·2:55
Cavaliers Full timeout
ORL 96·CLE 106

Betting line

CLE -4.5·O/U 221.5·ORL +170/CLE -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Orlando Magic, 114–98.

CLE -4.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

CLE

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.1

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR