NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9NO

12-36

10495

31-15

NBASun, Jan 25FinalSeriesSA wins series 3-1VegasSA -11.5

NO · top performer

Saddiq Bey

G · #41

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Julian Champagnie

F · #30

10.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 59pp · 4th Quarter · 22.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	28	9	4-10	1-4	—	+21	3	2
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	24	10-18	—	4-5	+17	10	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	38	17	7-22	3-11	0-1	+13	6	9
D. QueenC · #22	17	4	2-7	0-1	—	+3	4	1
S. BeyG · #41	33	24	7-15	3-7	7-9	+22	10	4
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	12	2	1-1	—	—	-14	1	0
Y. MissiC · #21	30	10	4-11	—	2-2	+9	14	2
J. AlvaradoG · #15	13	6	2-5	2-5	—	-12	5	1
M. PeavyG · #14	18	0	0-4	0-3	—	-10	2	0
J. FearsG · #0	16	8	4-9	0-3	—	-4	3	0
Team		104	41-102	9-34	13-17		58	23
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	19	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-9	1	3
J. ChampagnieF · #30	29	13	3-9	1-7	6-6	-3	4	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	31	16	6-16	2-10	2-6	-12	16	0
D. FoxG · #4	35	12	4-8	3-5	1-4	-13	2	7
S. CastleG · #5	29	5	1-6	0-2	3-4	-19	4	5
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #3	28	15	6-12	1-5	2-4	-14	2	1
C. BryantF · #11	7	6	2-5	2-5	—	+5	2	0
L. KornetC · #7	20	5	2-5	—	1-2	+8	8	1
D. VassellG · #24	25	13	5-12	2-8	1-3	-6	1	1
D. HarperG · #2	17	5	2-6	—	1-1	+18	6	3
Team		95	32-81	12-44	19-32		46	22
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, J. Sochan, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

41-102

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-81

FG %

9-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-44

13-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 3-1

Oct 25

SA120@

NO116

Nov 9

NO119@

SA126

Dec 9

SA135@

NO132

Jan 26

NO104@

SA95today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+40020%

SA-53584%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -11.5↗SpreadBet SA -11.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat SA 104-95. S. Bey led with 24 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. NO outscored the other side 31-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 25 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

SAstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 37

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 6:27 · 87-85

+12pp→ 58% WP

Trey Murphy III · shooting foul

NO4th Quarter · 2:54 · 96-93

+16pp→ 67% WP

Trey Murphy III · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Saddiq Bey assists)

NO4th Quarter · 22.9 · 104-95

+59pp→ 100% WP

Julian Champagnie · misses 25-foot turnaround jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	25	31	26	22	104
SA	28	19	21	27	95

Period scoring

NO won 2 · SA won 2

Bey 9

Fox 10

Williamson 10

Johnson 6

Jones 7

Bryant 6

Williamson 6

Champagnie 8

Shooting comparison

40%

41-102

40%

32-81

26%

9-34

3PT

27%

12-44

76%

13-17

59%

19-32

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 104·SA 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 104·SA 95
Q4·20.6
Yves Missi defensive rebound
NO 104·SA 95
Q4·22.9
Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
NO 104·SA 95
−59pp
Q4·26.6
Spurs Full timeout
NO 104·SA 95
Q4·26.6
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 104·SA 95
Q4·26.6
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 103·SA 95
Q4·26.6
Stephon Castle personal take foul
NO 102·SA 95
−0.6pp
Q4·28.6
Julian Champagnie makes two point shot
NO 102·SA 95
Q4·28.6
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
NO 102·SA 93
Q4·32.9
Stephon Castle misses 26-foot running jump shot
NO 102·SA 93
Q4·35.5
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
NO 102·SA 93
Q4·38.6
Trey Murphy III misses 29-foot three point jumper
·
NO 102·SA 93
Q4·59.1
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
NO 102·SA 93
Q4·1:00
Victor Wembanyama misses 25-foot three point jumper
NO 102·SA 93
−0.9pp
Q4·1:14
Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 102·SA 93
+0.7pp
Q4·1:14
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 101·SA 93
Q4·1:14
Keldon Johnson shooting foul
NO 100·SA 93
−2pp
Q4·1:31
Yves Missi defensive rebound
NO 100·SA 93
−0.7pp
Q4·1:32
Victor Wembanyama misses 17-foot jumper
NO 100·SA 93
−3pp
Q4·1:44
Yves Missi makes driving dunk (Trey Murphy III assists)
· ·
NO 100·SA 93
−4pp
Q4·1:58
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
·
NO 98·SA 93
Q4·2:01
Keldon Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
−6pp
Q4·2:01
Spurs offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
−5pp
Q4·2:01
Keldon Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
−6pp
Q4·2:01
Yves Missi loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
+11pp
Q4·2:01
Spurs offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
+6pp
Q4·2:02
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
−6pp
Q4·2:02
Spurs offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
−5pp
Q4·2:02
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 98·SA 93
−6pp

Betting line

SA -11.5·O/U 239.5·NO +400/SA -535

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 104–95.

NO +11.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 40.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Saddiq BeyNO
19.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high
DeAndre JordanNO
6.5± 4.6low

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
DeAndre JordanNO
0.9± 1.7low

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

115.5

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

13.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR