NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14CLE

CLE

27-20

119105

ORL

23-21

NBASat, Jan 24FinalSeriesCLE leads series 1-0VegasORL -1.5

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

26.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 19pp · 1st Quarter · 1:46

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	26	10	4-4	2-2	—	+10	3	1
J. AllenC · #31	25	8	3-5	0-1	2-2	+7	6	1
E. MobleyC · #4	35	13	4-14	1-6	4-4	+14	7	3
D. MitchellG · #45	38	36	15-30	2-8	4-5	+15	5	9
J. TysonG · #20	32	17	5-9	3-5	4-4	+5	5	4
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	25	9	3-5	2-4	1-2	-8	1	4
T. BryantC · #3	10	4	1-3	1-2	1-2	+13	3	1
L. BallG · #2	25	6	2-4	2-4	—	+5	8	2
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	15	4	2-3	—	0-1	0	0	1
T. ProctorG · #24	10	12	4-4	2-2	2-2	+9	0	1
Team		119	43-81	15-34	18-22		38	27
DNP: L. Nance Jr., D. Hunter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	38	27	7-14	3-6	10-12	-6	5	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	30	11	3-9	1-5	4-4	-2	5	3
D. BaneG · #3	38	20	7-14	2-6	4-4	-8	4	3
J. SuggsG · #4	24	9	3-6	1-4	2-2	-17	1	6
A. BlackG · #0	40	16	6-12	3-7	1-2	-6	5	5
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	13	13	4-11	1-5	4-4	-14	6	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	20	0	0-3	0-2	—	+4	1	0
N. PendaF · #93	16	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	-19	3	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	5	2	1-4	—	—	+2	6	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	15	4	1-4	0-3	2-2	-4	1	2
Team		105	33-81	11-40	28-32		37	21
DNP: J. Isaac, T. Jones, J. Howard

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

43-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-81

FG %

15-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-40

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

Jan 25

CLE119@

ORL105today

Jan 27

ORL98@

CLE114

Mar 11

CLE122@

ORL128

Mar 25

ORL131@

CLE136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+10250%

ORL-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -1.5↗SpreadBet ORL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat ORL 119-105. D. Mitchell led the way with 36 points and 9 assists. Craig Porter Jr. la's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

ORLstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 17 REB · 2 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL1st Quarter · 6:08 · 15-12

+8pp→ 42% WP

shot clock turnover

ORL1st Quarter · 1:46 · 22-21

+19pp→ 47% WP

Craig Porter Jr. la · ne violation turnover

ORL3rd Quarter · 10:45 · 57-53

+6pp→ 33% WP

Wendell Carter Jr. · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Suggs assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	25	30	27	37	119
ORL	23	25	22	35	105

Period scoring

CLE won 4 · ORL won 0

Mitchell 9

Bane 7

Tyson 9

Penda 5

Mitchell 10

Black 6

Mitchell 17

Banchero 20

CLE

ORL

Shooting comparison

CLE

ORL

53%

43-81

41%

33-81

44%

15-34

3PT

28%

11-40

82%

18-22

88%

28-32

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 119·ORL 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 119·ORL 105
Q4·4.9
shot clock turnover
CLE 119·ORL 105
Q4·33.7
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 119·ORL 105
Q4·33.7
Anthony Black misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 119·ORL 105
Q4·38.3
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 119·ORL 105
Q4·38.3
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 118·ORL 105
Q4·38.3
Paolo Banchero personal foul
CLE 117·ORL 105
Q4·46.2
Paolo Banchero makes driving layup
CLE 117·ORL 105
−1pp
Q4·52.1
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 117·ORL 103
Q4·52.1
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 116·ORL 103
Q4·52.1
Anthony Black personal foul
CLE 115·ORL 103
Q4·1:03
Anthony Black makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
CLE 115·ORL 103
Q4·1:07
Anthony Black defensive rebound
CLE 115·ORL 100
Q4·1:11
Donovan Mitchell misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 115·ORL 100
Q4·1:31
Noah Penda out of bounds bad pass turnover
CLE 115·ORL 100
Q4·1:44
Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 115·ORL 100
Q4·2:02
Dean Wade defensive rebound
CLE 112·ORL 100
Q4·2:02
Wendell Carter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 112·ORL 100
Q4·2:23
Dean Wade makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)
·
CLE 112·ORL 100
−2pp
Q4·2:35
Anthony Black makes two point shot
CLE 109·ORL 100
+1pp
Q4·2:39
Evan Mobley bad pass turnover (Anthony Black steals)
·
CLE 109·ORL 98
+1pp
Q4·2:39
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 109·ORL 98
−0.5pp
Q4·2:39
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 109·ORL 97
Q4·2:39
Donovan Mitchell personal foul
CLE 109·ORL 96
+0.6pp
Q4·2:39
Desmond Bane offensive rebound
CLE 109·ORL 96
Q4·2:39
Desmond Bane misses driving floating jump shot
CLE 109·ORL 96
Q4·2:45
Donovan Mitchell traveling turnover
CLE 109·ORL 96
Q4·2:45
Anthony Black bad pass turnover (Donovan Mitchell steals)
·
CLE 109·ORL 96
Q4·2:57
Donovan Mitchell makes driving layup
CLE 109·ORL 96

Betting line

ORL -1.5·O/U 225.5·CLE +102/ORL -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 119–105.

CLE +1.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

ORL

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR