NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12TOR

TOR

28-19

11098

POR

23-23

NBAFri, Jan 23FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasTOR -3.5

TOR · top performer

Immanuel Quickley

G · #5

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Jrue Holiday

G · #5

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 9:42

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	20	7-15	1-5	5-7	+11	7	3
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	35	22	9-15	3-6	1-2	+25	6	4
R. BarrettF · #9	21	10	4-9	0-5	2-4	-6	6	3
S. BarnesF · #4	35	15	6-15	0-2	3-4	+9	9	4
I. QuickleyG · #5	34	20	9-15	2-4	—	+9	8	7
Bench
J. BattleF · #77	9	3	1-1	1-1	—	+2	0	0
J. MogboF · #2	4	0	0-1	—	—	-5	1	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	22	10	5-8	0-3	—	+3	4	1
J. SheadG · #23	20	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	3	5
G. DickG · #1	24	10	4-5	2-2	—	+10	2	1
Team		110	45-85	9-29	11-17		46	28
DNP: G. Temple, A.J. Lawson, A. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	37	16	5-12	4-8	2-2	-8	6	2
D. ClinganC · #23	29	13	6-14	1-4	—	0	16	2
J. HolidayG · #5	22	21	9-14	3-6	—	-5	1	7
S. SharpeG · #17	32	21	10-23	1-6	—	-8	7	4
S. CissokoG · #91	33	3	1-6	0-4	1-2	-8	3	1
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	26	8	2-8	0-5	4-6	0	2	2
Y. HansenC · #16	7	0	0-2	—	—	-13	3	0
C. LoveG · #2	29	11	4-9	3-6	—	-1	4	3
J. CookeG · #18	9	5	2-5	1-4	—	-3	2	0
R. RupertG · #21	16	0	0-5	0-2	—	-14	1	1
Team		98	39-98	13-45	7-10		45	22
DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, R. Williams III, D. Reath, M. Thybulle

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

POR

Home

45-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-98

FG %

9-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-45

11-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-10

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Dec 3

POR118@

TOR121

Jan 24

TOR110@

POR98today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-17063%

POR+14241%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -3.5↗SpreadBet TOR -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat POR 110-98. I. Quickley led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST. TOR outscored the other side 34-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 36 REB · 21 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

PORstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR3rd Quarter · 1:23 · 74-73

+11pp→ 59% WP

Sidy Cissoko · misses 28-foot three point jumper

POR3rd Quarter · 4.3 · 76-74

+10pp→ 39% WP

Sidy Cissoko · blocks Immanuel Quickley 's 13-foot driving layup

TOR4th Quarter · 9:42 · 84-78

+12pp→ 82% WP

Jerami Grant · misses 25-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	19	31	26	34	110
POR	12	31	31	24	98

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · POR won 1

Quickley 9

Camara 5

Barrett 8

Sharpe 13

Ingram 9

Camara 8

Barnes 11

Holiday 9

TOR

POR

Shooting comparison

TOR

POR

53%

45-85

40%

39-98

31%

9-29

3PT

29%

13-45

65%

11-17

70%

7-10

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·3.5
shot clock turnover
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·3.5
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·3.5
Scottie Barnes blocks Caleb Love 's 4-foot driving layup
·
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·3.6
Caleb Love offensive rebound
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·7.0
Scottie Barnes blocks Yang Hansen 's 7-foot two point shot
·
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·27.5
Immanuel Quickley makes 2-foot two point shot
TOR 110·POR 98
Q4·41.6
Yang Hansen enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
TOR 108·POR 98
Q4·41.6
Javonte Cooke enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe
·
TOR 108·POR 98
Q4·41.6
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 108·POR 98
Q4·41.6
(00:41.6) [Trail Blazers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Trail Blazers] charged with a timeout
TOR 108·POR 98
Q4·41.6
Trail Blazers Full timeout
TOR 108·POR 98
Q4·41.6
Shaedon Sharpe out of bounds lost ball turnover
TOR 108·POR 98
Q4·45.4
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 108·POR 98
Q4·45.4
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 107·POR 98
Q4·45.4
Sidy Cissoko shooting foul
TOR 106·POR 98
Q4·49.0
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
TOR 106·POR 98
Q4·49.0
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
TOR 106·POR 98
Q4·49.0
Shaedon Sharpe personal foul
TOR 106·POR 98
−0.5pp
Q4·52.2
Shaedon Sharpe makes 1-foot dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
TOR 106·POR 98
Q4·56.8
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
TOR 106·POR 96
Q4·59.2
Scottie Barnes misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 106·POR 96
Q4·1:23
Jerami Grant makes 9-foot two point shot
TOR 106·POR 96
Q4·1:36
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes running dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
TOR 106·POR 94
Q4·1:38
Jamal Shead defensive rebound
TOR 104·POR 94
Q4·1:41
Scottie Barnes blocks Shaedon Sharpe 's 3-foot driving layup
·
TOR 104·POR 94
−0.6pp
Q4·1:57
Trail Blazers defensive team rebound
TOR 104·POR 94
Q4·1:57
Toumani Camara blocks Sandro Mamukelashvili 's 3-foot layup
·
TOR 104·POR 94
Q4·1:57
(01:57) [Trail Blazers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Trail Blazers] retain their timeout
TOR 104·POR 94
+1pp

Betting line

TOR -3.5·O/U 225.5·TOR -170/POR +142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 110–98.

TOR -3.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

POR

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.6

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR