IND
11-35
OKC
37-9
IND · top performer
Andrew Nembhard
G · #2
27
Pts
7
Reb
11
Ast
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
47
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 29pp · 4th Quarter · 6.0
NBA · Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 21 | 9-20 | 2-6 | 1-3 | -6 | 6 | 6 | |
| 31 | 26 | 8-15 | 3-6 | 7-11 | +9 | 4 | 3 | |
| 36 | 27 | 10-16 | 4-7 | 3-4 | +16 | 7 | 11 | |
| 36 | 17 | 7-14 | 3-5 | — | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
| 33 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-3 | — | 0 | 10 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 0 | — | — | 0-2 | +5 | 6 | 0 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-7 | — | 0 | 10 | 1 | |
| 19 | 6 | 3-9 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 2 | 3 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | — | -3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 117 | 45-96 | 16-38 | 11-20 | 51 | 34 | ||
| DNP: E. Thompson, K. Jones | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 25 | 8-14 | 2-4 | 7-8 | +13 | 13 | 3 | |
| 35 | 47 | 17-28 | 1-4 | 12-12 | +4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 30 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-5 | 3-3 | +7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 35 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-5 | — | -17 | 3 | 1 | |
| 30 | 10 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | -2 | 5 | 3 | |
| 6 | 0 | — | — | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | — | +5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 7 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | -12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 12 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 2-3 | -7 | 7 | 4 | |
| Team | 114 | 40-82 | 7-26 | 27-30 | 41 | 18 | ||
| DNP: A. Wiggins, C. Youngblood | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
49
34
Ast
18
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
45-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-82
47
FG %
49
16-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-26
11-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
27-30
34
Assists
18
10
Turnovers
9
Season series
Series tied 1-1
OKC141@IND135IND117@OKC114todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND+60014%OKC-90090%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
IND beat OKC 117-114. A. Nembhard paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 11 AST. IND outscored the other side 39-28 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
95 PTS · 32 REB · 28 AST
GS 76
Bench(6)
22 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST
GS 19
OKCstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
91 PTS · 27 REB · 10 AST
GS 70
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLuguentz Dort · personal foul
Andrew Nembhard · personal foul
Cason Wallace · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 39 | 19 | 31 | 28 | 117 |
| OKC | 28 | 25 | 32 | 29 | 114 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · OKC won 3
Q1
Nembhard 8
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Q2
Siakam 9
Gilgeous-Alexander 8
Q3
Walker 9
Gilgeous-Alexander 14
Q4
Nembhard 9
Gilgeous-Alexander 15
Shooting comparison
47%
45-96
FG
49%
40-82
42%
16-38
3PT
27%
7-26
55%
11-20
FT
90%
27-30
Play-by-play · 508 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 117·OKC 114
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 117·OKC 114
−2pp
- Q4·1.1
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
IND 117·OKC 114
- Q4·1.1
Pascal Siakam misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 117·OKC 114
+1pp
- Q4·1.1
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 117·OKC 114
- Q4·1.1
Pascal Siakam misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 117·OKC 114
- Q4·1.1
Jaylin Williams personal foul
·
IND 117·OKC 114
−0.6pp
- Q4·1.1
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
IND 117·OKC 114
−2pp
- Q4·3.0
Isaiah Joe misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 117·OKC 114
−7pp
- Q4·6.0
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
IND 117·OKC 114
- Q4·6.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
IND 117·OKC 114
- Q4·6.0
Thunder Full timeout
IND 117·OKC 114
- Q4·6.0
Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 117·OKC 114
+4pp
- Q4·6.0
Johnny Furphy enters the game for Micah Potter
·
IND 116·OKC 114
- Q4·6.0
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
· ·
IND 116·OKC 114
- Q4·6.0
Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 116·OKC 114
−1pp
- Q4·6.0
Cason Wallace personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 115·OKC 114
−29pp
- Q4·7.8
Chet Holmgren kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
IND 115·OKC 114
+14pp
- Q4·7.8
Aaron Nesmith enters the game for Tony Bradley
·
IND 115·OKC 114
- Q4·7.8
Pacers Full timeout
IND 115·OKC 114
- Q4·7.8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 115·OKC 114
−10pp
- Q4·7.8
Tony Bradley enters the game for Johnny Furphy
·
IND 115·OKC 113
- Q4·7.8
Micah Potter enters the game for Aaron Nesmith
·
IND 115·OKC 113
- Q4·7.8
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe
· ·
IND 115·OKC 113
- Q4·7.8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 115·OKC 113
+3pp
- Q4·7.8
Andrew Nembhard personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 115·OKC 112
+13pp
- Q4·10.3
Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 115·OKC 112
+7pp
- Q4·10.3
Johnny Furphy enters the game for Micah Potter
·
IND 114·OKC 112
- Q4·10.3
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Kenrich Williams
· ·
IND 114·OKC 112
- Q4·10.3
Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 114·OKC 112
−2pp
Betting line
OKC -15.5·O/U 226.5·IND +600/OKC -900
Recap · NBA
ndiana Pacers went into Oklahoma City Thunder and beat them, 117–114. Decided by 3.
IND +15.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
- Andrew NembhardIND · GTOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · CCONT8.796
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
145
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND16.8± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
- Micah PotterIND6.1± 4.5high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.0± 1.4medium
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
IND
league avg
OKC
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
45.8%
FG%
47.0
▶48.2%
112.4
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
27.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9