NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4BOS

BOS

28-16

130126

BKN

12-31

NBAFri, Jan 23FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-1VegasBOS -8.5

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

22.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Michael Porter Jr.

F · #17

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 46pp · OT · 0.4

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final/2OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	39	19	7-12	5-10	—	-5	4	3
N. QuetaC · #88	28	6	2-3	—	2-2	+2	5	3
J. BrownG · #7	46	27	9-27	4-10	5-10	+11	10	12
P. PritchardG · #11	40	32	13-24	6-11	—	-3	4	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	34	6	2-8	2-5	—	-2	7	4
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	5	3	1-1	—	1-1	+7	0	1
L. GarzaC · #52	20	12	5-9	1-2	1-1	-1	1	3
A. SimonsG · #4	37	10	4-16	1-7	1-2	+6	3	2
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	7	0	0-2	0-2	—	+7	0	0
J. WalshG · #27	15	5	2-3	1-2	—	-6	0	2
H. GonzalezG · #28	19	10	4-4	2-2	—	+4	7	1
Team		130	49-109	22-51	10-16		41	35
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, D. White

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	42	30	9-19	4-12	8-9	0	8	4
N. ClowneyF · #21	43	15	5-14	3-10	2-2	-4	9	1
N. ClaxtonC · #33	39	18	8-13	—	2-2	-1	9	4
D. PowellG · #4	20	6	2-3	1-2	1-1	-10	1	1
E. DeminG · #8	21	6	2-4	2-3	—	-9	4	2
Bench
Z. WilliamsF · #1	33	14	4-15	1-11	5-6	+5	8	0
D. WolfF · #2	18	4	2-3	—	—	-4	6	2
D. SharpeC · #20	19	5	1-3	—	3-4	-4	8	2
C. ThomasG · #24	19	7	2-8	0-2	3-4	-1	2	4
N. TraoreG · #88	37	21	7-13	2-4	5-6	+8	3	2
Team		126	42-95	13-44	29-34		58	22
DNP: J. Wilson, T. Mann, T. Martin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

49-109

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-95

FG %

22-51

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-44

10-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

29-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 2-1

Nov 19

BOS113@

BKN99

Nov 22

BKN113@

BOS105

Jan 24

BOS130@

BKN126today

Feb 28

BKN111@

BOS148

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-35578%

BKN+28026%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat BKN 130-126. P. Pritchard paced them with 32 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. Hugo Gonzalez's play in the ot drove the biggest swing of the night (46pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 30 REB · 26 AST

GS 76

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST

GS 28

BKNstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 31 REB · 12 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

51 PTS · 27 REB · 10 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 1.9 · 104-104

+43pp→ 49% WP

Nic Claxton · makes tip in dunk

BKNOT · 5:00 · 104-104

+38pp→ 50% WP

Nolan Traore · enters the game for Drake Powell

BOSOT · 0.4 · 118-118

+46pp→ 50% WP

Hugo Gonzalez · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	OT2	T
BOS	28	21	29	26	14	12	130
BKN	28	27	26	23	14	8	126

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · BKN won 1

Brown 7

Jr. 7

Hauser 6

Jr. 10

Pritchard 12

Williams 9

Simons 5

Powell 8

Pritchard 6

Traore 11

OT2

Brown 4

Jr. 6

BOS

BKN

Shooting comparison

BOS

BKN

45%

49-109

44%

42-95

43%

22-51

3PT

30%

13-44

63%

10-16

85%

29-34

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period

event

player

2OT·0.0
End of Game
BOS 130·BKN 126
2OT·0.0
End of the 2nd Overtime
BOS 130·BKN 126
−1pp
2OT·3.1
Sam Hauser defensive rebound
BOS 130·BKN 126
−4pp
2OT·8.5
Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 130·BKN 126
−8pp
2OT·16.7
Nic Claxton defensive rebound
BOS 130·BKN 126
2OT·20.4
Sam Hauser misses 25-foot three point jumper
BOS 130·BKN 126
+2pp
2OT·36.8
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 130·BKN 126
−2pp
2OT·40.6
Amari Williams blocks Nolan Traore 's 2-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
BOS 130·BKN 126
−5pp
2OT·44.2
Nets Full timeout
BOS 130·BKN 126
2OT·44.2
Payton Pritchard makes driving layup (Jaylen Brown assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 130·BKN 126
−9pp
2OT·1:02
Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
BOS 128·BKN 126
−3pp
2OT·1:05
Noah Clowney misses 25-foot running jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 128·BKN 126
−9pp
2OT·1:09
Ziaire Williams defensive rebound
·
BOS 128·BKN 126
+3pp
2OT·1:11
Jaylen Brown misses 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 128·BKN 126
+8pp
2OT·1:31
Michael Porter Jr. makes layup (Noah Clowney assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 128·BKN 126
−6pp
2OT·1:37
Payton Pritchard loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 128·BKN 124
+17pp
2OT·1:37
Nets offensive team rebound
BOS 128·BKN 124
+5pp
2OT·1:40
Noah Clowney misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
BOS 128·BKN 124
−6pp
2OT·1:51
Sam Hauser makes 22-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 128·BKN 124
−17pp
2OT·1:58
Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
BOS 125·BKN 124
−3pp
2OT·2:00
Michael Porter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BOS 125·BKN 124
−8pp
2OT·2:08
Sam Hauser personal foul
BOS 125·BKN 124
2OT·2:13
Jaylen Brown out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
BOS 125·BKN 124
+10pp
2OT·2:18
Michael Porter Jr. makes 2-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 125·BKN 124
+8pp
2OT·2:35
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 125·BKN 122
+5pp
2OT·2:35
Sam Hauser enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
BOS 124·BKN 122
2OT·2:35
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 124·BKN 122
2OT·2:35
Nolan Traore shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 123·BKN 122
−15pp
2OT·2:49
Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot driving dunkBIG MOMENT
BOS 123·BKN 122
+8pp
2OT·3:06
Noah Clowney defensive rebound
BOS 123·BKN 120
+2pp

Betting line

BOS -8.5·O/U 215.5·BOS -355/BKN +280

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 130–126 in overtime. Decided by 4.

BKN +8.5 cashed (BOS won by 4). Total cleared the 215.5 OVER by 40.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

BKN

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

46.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.0

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR