NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17SA

31-14

126109

UTAH

15-30

NBAThu, Jan 22FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-1VegasSA -12.5

SA · top performer

De'Aaron Fox

G · #4

28.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Keyonte George

G · #3

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:14

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	22	2	1-5	0-4	—	-5	1	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	34	17	6-10	5-9	—	+25	3	3
V. WembanyamaF · #1	33	26	9-14	4-7	4-4	+19	14	3
D. FoxG · #4	35	31	10-13	6-9	5-6	+13	5	5
S. CastleG · #5	38	16	4-12	1-3	7-10	+18	6	8
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	8	2	1-4	0-2	—	-7	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	31	21	9-19	1-4	2-2	+9	1	5
J. SochanF · #10	4	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
C. BryantF · #11	13	7	3-5	1-3	—	+5	4	1
J. McLaughlinG · #0	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	+8	3	2
D. HarperG · #2	13	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	-3	3	2
Team		126	44-87	18-43	20-24		41	30
DNP: L. Waters III, B. Biyombo

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. WilliamsF · #5	23	12	5-9	1-2	1-2	+9	7	3
J. NurkicC · #30	35	17	7-19	1-6	2-3	-21	11	14
S. MykhailiukG · #10	19	9	4-5	1-2	—	0	1	1
K. GeorgeG · #3	35	23	7-15	4-5	5-5	-2	4	5
A. BaileyG · #19	32	25	11-16	2-3	1-1	-21	6	2
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	13	5	2-3	1-1	—	+4	4	1
K. FilipowskiF · #22	19	5	2-4	1-2	—	-8	5	0
B. SensabaughF · #28	20	2	0-6	0-4	2-2	-12	3	0
I. CollierG · #8	20	7	3-8	1-2	—	-10	3	4
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	24	4	2-5	0-3	—	-24	0	1
Team		109	43-90	12-30	11-13		44	31
DNP: K. Anderson, T. Hendricks

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

44-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-90

FG %

18-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-30

20-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-1

Dec 28

UTAH127@

SA114

Jan 19

UTAH110@

SA123

Jan 23

SA126@

UTAH109today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-57585%

UTAH+42519%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -12.5↗SpreadBet SA -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat UTAH 126-109. D. Fox paced them with 31 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. SA outscored the other side 34-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 86

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

UTAHstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 29 REB · 25 AST

GS 80

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH3rd Quarter · 7:14 · 76-71

+12pp→ 19% WP

Kyle Filipowski · enters the game for Svi Mykhailiuk

UTAH4th Quarter · 10:29 · 99-99

+10pp→ 40% WP

Ace Bailey · makes 3-foot dunk (Jusuf Nurkic assists)

SA4th Quarter · 7:39 · 104-99

+9pp→ 79% WP

Victor Wembanyama · makes 23-foot running jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	31	34	32	29	126
UTAH	31	22	39	17	109

Period scoring

SA won 2 · UTAH won 1

Fox 12

Bailey 12

Castle 8

George 7

Johnson 7

Filipowski 21

Fox 12

Bailey 9

UTAH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

51%

44-87

48%

43-90

42%

18-43

3PT

40%

12-30

83%

20-24

85%

11-13

Play-by-play · 452 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·1.9
shot clock turnover
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·25.9
shot clock turnover
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·48.5
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·51.0
Jusuf Nurkic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·52.8
Ace Bailey offensive rebound
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·55.5
Victor Wembanyama blocks Brice Sensabaugh 's 4-foot driving layup
·
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·1:12
Julian Champagnie makes running layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
SA 126·UTAH 109
Q4·1:17
Jusuf Nurkic bad pass turnover (Stephon Castle steals)
·
SA 124·UTAH 109
Q4·1:29
Keldon Johnson makes driving layup
SA 124·UTAH 109
Q4·1:45
Brice Sensabaugh out of bounds bad pass turnover
SA 122·UTAH 109
Q4·1:46
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
SA 122·UTAH 109
Q4·1:49
De'Aaron Fox misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 122·UTAH 109
Q4·2:10
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
SA 122·UTAH 109
Q4·2:12
Brice Sensabaugh misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 122·UTAH 109
Q4·2:30
Stephon Castle makes 3-foot driving dunk (Julian Champagnie assists)
·
SA 122·UTAH 109
Q4·2:41
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 120·UTAH 109
Q4·2:47
De'Aaron Fox blocks Walter Clayton Jr. 's 26-foot three point jumper
·
SA 120·UTAH 109
−0.6pp
Q4·3:00
De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Victor Wembanyama assists)
·
SA 120·UTAH 109
−3pp
Q4·3:18
Ace Bailey makes tip shot
SA 117·UTAH 109
+1pp
Q4·3:18
Ace Bailey offensive rebound
SA 117·UTAH 107
+0.8pp
Q4·3:20
Jusuf Nurkic misses layup
SA 117·UTAH 107
−1pp
Q4·3:42
Victor Wembanyama makes 14-foot jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
SA 117·UTAH 107
−2pp
Q4·3:55
Victor Wembanyama enters the game for Harrison Barnes
·
SA 115·UTAH 107
Q4·3:55
Spurs Full timeout
SA 115·UTAH 107
Q4·3:57
Jusuf Nurkic makes 6-foot floating jump shot
SA 115·UTAH 107
+0.9pp
Q4·4:20
De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot running jump shot (Keldon Johnson assists)
·
SA 115·UTAH 105
−4pp
Q4·4:25
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
SA 112·UTAH 105
−0.9pp
Q4·4:27
Keldon Johnson blocks Brice Sensabaugh 's 5-foot dunk
·
SA 112·UTAH 105
−3pp

Betting line

SA -12.5·O/U 238.5·SA -575/UTAH +425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 126–109.

SA -12.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 238.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Jusuf NurkicUTAH · C
DEFL2.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Oscar TshiebweUTAH
8.5± 5.5high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high
John KoncharUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

UTAH

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

118.2

PPG

114.9

117.6

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR