DEN
30-15
WSH
10-33
DEN · top performer
Peyton Watson
G · #8
35
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
WSH · top performer
Kyshawn George
F · #18
20
Pts
12
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 7:55
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 16 | 5-12 | 1-6 | 5-5 | +23 | 5 | 5 | |
| 22 | 16 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 4-4 | -3 | 9 | 2 | |
| 36 | 24 | 9-17 | 2-5 | 4-5 | +18 | 4 | 5 | |
| 33 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +16 | 5 | 5 | |
| 40 | 35 | 10-16 | 6-8 | 9-10 | +13 | 8 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 28 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-5 | — | -8 | 3 | 0 | |
| 18 | 6 | 3-8 | — | — | -7 | 6 | 2 | |
| Team | 107 | 37-83 | 9-26 | 24-26 | 46 | 22 | ||
| DNP: H. Tyson, D. Holmes II, J. Strawther | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 9 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 2-2 | -18 | 2 | 0 | |
| 34 | 20 | 6-17 | 2-6 | 6-6 | -4 | 12 | 7 | |
| 36 | 15 | 5-13 | 0-1 | 5-6 | -9 | 8 | 4 | |
| 38 | 13 | 4-14 | 3-13 | 2-2 | -18 | 2 | 2 | |
| 34 | 19 | 7-14 | 3-7 | 2-2 | -11 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +2 | 2 | 3 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +2 | 5 | 1 | |
| 21 | 13 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 2-4 | +5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 97 | 32-84 | 13-43 | 20-24 | 42 | 20 | ||
| DNP: M. Bagley III, M. Branham, AJ Johnson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
38
22
Ast
20
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
37-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-84
45
FG %
38
9-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-43
24-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-24
22
Assists
20
11
Turnovers
14
Season series
DEN wins series 2-0
WSH115@DEN121DEN107@WSH97todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN-25071%WSH+20533%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat WSH 107-97. P. Watson led the way with 35 points and 8 rebounds.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
93 PTS · 31 REB · 20 AST
GS 84
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 15 REB · 2 AST
GS 9
WSHstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST
GS 52
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJamal Murray · misses two point shot
Will Riley · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)
Peyton Watson · makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 27 | 21 | 33 | 26 | 107 |
| WSH | 23 | 23 | 29 | 22 | 97 |
Period scoring
DEN won 3 · WSH won 1
Q1
Valanciunas 8
Carrington 8
Q2
Watson 8
Middleton 6
Q3
Murray 13
Johnson 10
Q4
Watson 8
George 8
Shooting comparison
45%
37-83
FG
38%
32-84
35%
9-26
3PT
30%
13-43
92%
24-26
FT
83%
20-24
Play-by-play · 463 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 107·WSH 97
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 107·WSH 97
- Q4·20.7
shot clock turnover
DEN 107·WSH 97
- Q4·45.5
Kyshawn George makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)
·
DEN 107·WSH 97
- Q4·59.4
Jalen Pickett makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 107·WSH 95
- Q4·59.4
Jalen Pickett makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 106·WSH 95
- Q4·59.4
Tre Johnson personal foul
·
DEN 105·WSH 95
- Q4·1:05
Peyton Watson defensive rebound
DEN 105·WSH 95
- Q4·1:08
Tre Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
DEN 105·WSH 95
- Q4·1:16
Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 105·WSH 95
- Q4·1:16
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 104·WSH 95
- Q4·1:16
Peyton Watson misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 104·WSH 95
- Q4·1:16
Alex Sarr personal foul
DEN 104·WSH 95
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:33
Alex Sarr makes 2-foot dunk (Kyshawn George assists)
·
DEN 104·WSH 95
- Q4·1:50
Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 104·WSH 93
- Q4·1:50
Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 103·WSH 93
−2pp
- Q4·1:50
(01:50) [Wizards] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Wizards] charged with a timeout
DEN 102·WSH 93
+1pp
- Q4·1:50
Wizards Full timeout
DEN 102·WSH 93
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:50
(01:50) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
DEN 102·WSH 93
+1pp
- Q4·1:50
Khris Middleton shooting foul
DEN 102·WSH 93
−1pp
- Q4·2:03
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
DEN 102·WSH 93
- Q4·2:05
Khris Middleton misses 23-foot three point jumper
DEN 102·WSH 93
−1pp
- Q4·2:15
Jamal Murray makes driving layup
DEN 102·WSH 93
−2pp
- Q4·2:32
Tre Johnson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)
· ·
DEN 100·WSH 93
+1pp
- Q4·2:47
Aaron Gordon makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
DEN 100·WSH 91
−2pp
- Q4·3:00
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
DEN 98·WSH 91
−0.8pp
- Q4·3:03
Kyshawn George misses 30-foot running jump shot
DEN 98·WSH 91
−2pp
- Q4·3:07
Kyshawn George defensive rebound
DEN 98·WSH 91
+0.6pp
- Q4·3:10
Jamal Murray misses driving floating jump shot
DEN 98·WSH 91
+4pp
- Q4·3:21
Kyshawn George personal foul
DEN 98·WSH 91
−3pp
Betting line
DEN -6.5·O/U 227.5·DEN -250/WSH +205
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 107–97.
DEN -6.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 23.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Alex SarrWSH · CCONT9.498
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Anthony GillWSH · FTS%68.297- Kyshawn GeorgeWSH · FCONT6.790
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.790
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Anthony DavisWSH20.5± 9.2high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Anthony DavisWSH11.3± 4.3high
- Julian ReeseWSH10.5± 6.4low
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
- Bub CarringtonWSH5.1± 1.9high
Blocks
- Anthony DavisWSH1.7± 1.5high
- Alex SarrWSH1.6± 1.4high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Julian ReeseWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Leaky BlackWSH1.4± 1.7medium
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
WSH
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.5%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
46.3%
121.1
PPG
114.9
112.9
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1