NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATL

ATL

21-25

124122

MEM

18-24

NBAWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasMEM -1.5

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

28.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Ja Morant

G · #12

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 29.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	14	8	3-5	2-4	—	-11	1	2
O. OkongwuF · #17	28	18	6-10	4-8	2-3	-3	9	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	39	32	10-21	2-6	10-11	0	15	8
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	33	11	3-11	2-9	3-3	+1	2	4
D. DanielsG · #5	35	3	1-9	—	1-2	-2	7	8
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	18	7	3-7	1-4	0-2	0	1	2
C. KolokoC · #35	11	5	2-3	1-1	—	+7	1	0
C. McCollumG · #3	26	15	6-14	3-7	—	+5	0	6
L. KennardG · #4	25	18	7-9	4-5	—	+5	4	2
V. KrejciG · #27	11	7	2-3	1-1	2-3	+8	2	1
Team		124	43-92	20-45	18-24		42	34
DNP: Z. Risacher, K. Wallace

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	32	17	6-12	1-4	4-5	+7	6	2
C. CowardF · #23	26	17	7-15	3-5	—	+11	7	0
J. WellsF · #0	26	18	6-16	2-9	4-4	+3	4	0
J. KoncharG · #46	21	2	1-1	—	—	-1	4	0
J. MorantG · #12	30	23	7-15	1-4	8-8	+1	2	12
Bench
GG JacksonF · #45	21	9	4-6	0-1	1-1	-11	2	1
J. LandaleC · #31	28	13	5-13	1-2	2-4	-1	11	3
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	18	9	3-3	1-1	2-2	-9	5	3
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	18	3	1-4	1-4	—	-3	0	1
C. SpencerG · #24	21	11	3-8	2-5	3-3	-7	2	4
Team		122	43-93	12-35	24-27		43	26
DNP: S. Aldama, S. Pippen Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

43-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-93

FG %

20-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

18-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Jan 22

ATL124@

MEM122today

Mar 23

MEM107@

ATL146

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MEM -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+10050%

MEM-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MEM -1.5↗SpreadBet MEM -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat MEM 124-122. J. Johnson paced them with 32 PTS, 15 REB, 8 AST. ATL outscored the other side 35-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

52 PTS · 8 REB · 11 AST

GS 45

MEMstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 1:23 · 122-118

+16pp→ 81% WP

CJ McCollum · makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dyson Daniels assists)

MEM4th Quarter · 29.5 · 124-121

+18pp→ 40% WP

Christian Koloko · loose ball foul

ATL4th Quarter · 29.5 · 124-122

+22pp→ 79% WP

Jaren Jackson Jr. · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	31	35	28	30	124
MEM	32	27	36	27	122

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · MEM won 2

Okongwu 8

Jr. 12

Kennard 9

Morant 12

McCollum 7

Wells 12

Johnson 10

Landale 8

ATL

MEM

Shooting comparison

ATL

MEM

47%

43-92

46%

43-93

44%

20-45

3PT

34%

12-35

75%

18-24

89%

24-27

Play-by-play · 530 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 124·MEM 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 124·MEM 122
Q4·0.0
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
ATL 124·MEM 122
Q4·0.0
Ja Morant misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 122
−15pp
Q4·5.1
Jaylen Wells defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 122
−6pp
Q4·7.9
Jalen Johnson misses 14-foot step back jumpshot
ATL 124·MEM 122
Q4·27.4
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
ATL 124·MEM 122
−0.5pp
Q4·29.5
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 124·MEM 122
−22pp
Q4·29.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Jock Landale
·
ATL 124·MEM 122
Q4·29.5
Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
·
ATL 124·MEM 122
+3pp
Q4·29.5
Christian Koloko loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 121
+18pp
Q4·29.5
Grizzlies offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 121
+10pp
Q4·30.7
Jock Landale misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 121
−10pp
Q4·30.7
Luke Kennard enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 124·MEM 121
Q4·30.7
Grizzlies offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 121
−9pp
Q4·30.7
Jock Landale misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 121
−9pp
Q4·30.7
Jalen Johnson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 121
+16pp
Q4·46.1
Jalen Johnson makes 11-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 124·MEM 121
−10pp
Q4·1:09
Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 122·MEM 121
+15pp
Q4·1:23
CJ McCollum makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dyson Daniels assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 122·MEM 118
−16pp
Q4·1:43
Ja Morant makes 1-foot running dunkBIG MOMENT
ATL 119·MEM 118
+8pp
Q4·1:45
Jalen Johnson bad pass turnover (Ja Morant steals)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 119·MEM 116
+7pp
Q4·2:02
Jock Landale makes 2-foot layup (Ja Morant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 119·MEM 116
+11pp
Q4·2:11
Christian Koloko enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
ATL 119·MEM 114
Q4·2:11
(02:11) [Hawks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Hawks] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 119·MEM 114
−5pp
Q4·2:11
Hawks Full timeout
ATL 119·MEM 114
Q4·2:11
Onyeka Okongwu offensive foul turnover
ATL 119·MEM 114
Q4·2:11
Onyeka Okongwu offensive foul
ATL 119·MEM 114
+4pp
Q4·2:28
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
ATL 119·MEM 114
−1pp
Q4·2:30
Ja Morant misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 119·MEM 114
−5pp

Betting line

MEM -1.5·O/U 239.5·ATL +100/MEM -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 124–122. Decided by 2.

ATL +1.5 cashed (MEM lost outright). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Ja MorantPOR · G
DRIVES15.798
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

MEM

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.8

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR