NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5UTAH

MIN

27-17

122127

UTAH

15-29

NBATue, Jan 20FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasMIN -12.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

27.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Keyonte George

G · #3

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 1:21

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	34	19	7-16	1-5	4-6	-1	2	3
J. McDanielsF · #3	35	18	7-16	2-7	2-2	+3	6	6
R. GobertC · #27	29	11	5-5	—	1-5	-6	10	0
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	33	15	5-12	3-9	2-2	-14	5	8
A. EdwardsG · #5	39	38	11-28	5-15	11-12	+7	8	3
Bench
J. BeringerF · #19	5	4	2-3	—	—	-2	3	0
N. ReidC · #11	28	13	5-15	3-9	—	-3	9	4
M. ConleyG · #10	16	0	0-3	0-2	—	-5	1	2
J. ClarkG · #22	17	4	2-2	—	—	-2	2	0
B. HylandG · #8	4	0	—	—	—	-2	0	2
Team		122	44-100	14-47	20-27		46	28
DNP: J. Ingles, E. Freeman, L. Miller, J. Juzang, R. Dillingham

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. WilliamsF · #5	29	8	4-5	0-1	—	-9	3	1
J. NurkicC · #30	31	16	7-11	0-1	2-3	+8	18	10
S. MykhailiukG · #10	17	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-7	3	0
K. GeorgeG · #3	39	43	15-28	6-13	7-8	-6	0	3
A. BaileyG · #19	33	20	8-17	3-8	1-1	+2	5	1
Bench
K. AndersonF · #2	17	2	1-3	0-1	—	-3	1	2
K. FilipowskiF · #22	33	11	3-6	2-3	3-4	+15	8	4
I. CollierG · #8	26	18	7-10	1-1	3-7	+9	4	10
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	13	5	2-5	—	1-1	+16	3	0
Team		127	48-87	12-29	19-26		45	31
DNP: K. Love, G. Niang, T. Hendricks

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

44-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-87

FG %

14-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-29

20-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 2-1

Nov 8

UTAH97@

MIN137

Nov 11

MIN120@

UTAH113

Jan 21

MIN122@

UTAH127today

Mar 19

UTAH111@

MIN147

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-65087%

UTAH+47018%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTAH beat MIN 127-122. K. George led the way with 43 points and 3 assists. UTAH outscored the other side 43-26 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 31 REB · 20 AST

GS 84

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 21

UTAHstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 16 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH4th Quarter · 6:05 · 106-110

+13pp→ 67% WP

Keyonte George · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)

MIN4th Quarter · 1:21 · 118-121

+17pp→ 36% WP

Keyonte George · shooting foul

UTAH4th Quarter · 59.2 · 119-124

+13pp→ 87% WP

Keyonte George · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	34	24	38	26	122
UTAH	29	30	25	43	127

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · UTAH won 2

Edwards 10

George 11

Edwards 7

George 14

Edwards 12

George 10

Edwards 9

Collier 12

MIN

UTAH

Shooting comparison

MIN

UTAH

44%

44-100

55%

48-87

30%

14-47

3PT

41%

12-29

74%

20-27

73%

19-26

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 122·UTAH 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 122·UTAH 127
+1pp
Q4·7.3
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
MIN 122·UTAH 127
+1pp
Q4·10.2
Jaden McDaniels misses 24-foot running jump shot
MIN 122·UTAH 127
+4pp
Q4·15.2
Naz Reid defensive rebound
MIN 122·UTAH 127
Q4·15.6
Julius Randle lane violation
MIN 122·UTAH 127
Q4·15.6
Kyle Filipowski misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 122·UTAH 127
−4pp
Q4·15.6
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 122·UTAH 127
Q4·15.6
Naz Reid personal take foul
MIN 122·UTAH 126
+4pp
Q4·16.1
Jazz Full timeout
MIN 122·UTAH 126
Q4·16.1
(00:16.1) [Jazz] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Jazz] retain their timeout
MIN 122·UTAH 126
Q4·16.1
Jazz Coach's Challenge
MIN 122·UTAH 126
Q4·16.1
Jazz defensive team rebound
MIN 122·UTAH 126
+2pp
Q4·18.0
Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 122·UTAH 126
+7pp
Q4·26.2
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
MIN 122·UTAH 126
+0.7pp
Q4·29.1
Isaiah Collier misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 122·UTAH 126
−7pp
Q4·29.1
Jazz offensive team rebound
MIN 122·UTAH 126
−3pp
Q4·29.1
Isaiah Collier misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 122·UTAH 126
−2pp
Q4·29.1
Donte DiVincenzo personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 122·UTAH 126
+5pp
Q4·32.2
Jazz Full timeout
MIN 122·UTAH 126
Q4·33.4
Anthony Edwards makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 122·UTAH 126
−7pp
Q4·36.8
(00:36.8) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIN 119·UTAH 126
+0.8pp
Q4·36.8
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 119·UTAH 126
Q4·36.8
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 119·UTAH 126
−1pp
Q4·40.6
Jaden McDaniels misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 119·UTAH 126
+2pp
Q4·43.6
Naz Reid offensive rebound
MIN 119·UTAH 126
−1pp
Q4·46.5
Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 119·UTAH 126
+2pp
Q4·52.6
Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 119·UTAH 126
−2pp
Q4·52.6
Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 119·UTAH 125
Q4·52.6
Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 119·UTAH 125
+0.5pp

Betting line

MIN -12.5·O/U 238.5·MIN -650/UTAH +470

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tah Jazz held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 127–122. Decided by 5.

UTAH +12.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 238.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

UTAH

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

116.8

PPG

114.9

117.6

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR