NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17LAL

TOR

25-19

93110

LAL

25-16

NBASun, Jan 18FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-0VegasLAL -2.5

TOR · top performer

Sandro Mamukelashvili

F · #54

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Deandre Ayton

C · #5

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 30pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:52

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	34	19	7-19	2-7	3-3	+3	6	7
S. BarnesF · #4	35	22	10-21	0-2	2-4	-11	9	3
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	25	11	5-7	—	1-1	-4	7	5
I. QuickleyG · #5	29	9	4-9	1-4	—	-11	3	7
O. AgbajiG · #30	25	0	0-5	0-3	—	+3	3	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	24	20	8-12	2-5	2-5	-13	6	2
J. BattleF · #77	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-12	2	0
J. MogboF · #2	15	4	2-2	—	—	-15	3	1
G. TempleG · #17	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	6	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	-2	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	22	3	1-8	1-5	—	-11	1	3
A. MartinG · #55	2	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	1
G. DickG · #1	12	0	0-2	0-2	—	-14	2	0
Team		93	38-91	7-32	10-15		43	30

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	32	24	9-17	2-4	4-4	+18	4	7
J. LaRaviaF · #12	19	2	1-5	0-4	—	-6	5	2
D. AytonC · #5	33	25	10-10	—	5-6	+20	13	1
M. SmartG · #36	25	8	3-6	2-3	—	+12	5	3
L. DoncicG · #77	34	25	8-23	5-12	4-5	-3	2	7
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	21	10	4-10	2-6	—	+8	0	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	21	2	1-1	—	—	+25	9	1
D. TimmeF · #17	16	3	1-4	1-2	—	+17	3	2
D. KnechtF · #4	2	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
J. HayesC · #11	13	3	1-1	—	1-2	-2	5	0
G. VincentG · #7	17	5	2-5	1-3	—	0	1	2
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	2	3	1-3	1-2	—	-1	0	0
K. BufkinG · #18	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
Team		110	41-85	14-36	14-17		48	25
DNP: M. Kleber

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

38-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-85

FG %

7-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-36

10-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 2-0

Dec 5

LAL123@

TOR120

Jan 19

TOR93@

LAL110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+11447%

LAL-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat TOR 110-93. D. Ayton paced them with 25 PTS, 13 REB, 1 AST. LAL outscored the other side 23-13 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 28 REB · 23 AST

GS 55

Bench(8)

32 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

LALstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 68

Bench(9)

26 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR3rd Quarter · 4:36 · 75-73

+8pp→ 58% WP

Jamal Shead · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)

LAL3rd Quarter · 1:24 · 77-82

+9pp→ 69% WP

LeBron James · makes 24-foot three pointer

TOR3rd Quarter · 4:52 · 72-73

+30pp→ 50% WP

Jaxson Hayes · lost ball turnover (Sandro Mamukelashvili steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	30	24	26	13	93
LAL	23	32	32	23	110

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · LAL won 3

Mamukelashvili 12

Doncic 12

Ingram 9

James 11

Ingram 7

Hachimura 8

Lawson 5

Timme 14

TOR

LAL

Shooting comparison

TOR

LAL

42%

38-91

48%

41-85

22%

7-32

3PT

39%

14-36

67%

10-15

82%

14-17

Play-by-play · 464 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 93·LAL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 93·LAL 110
Q4·1.0
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 93·LAL 110
Q4·3.0
Nick Smith Jr. misses 17-foot two point shot
TOR 93·LAL 110
Q4·21.8
A.J. Lawson makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 93·LAL 110
Q4·21.8
A.J. Lawson makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 92·LAL 110
Q4·21.8
Dalton Knecht shooting foul
TOR 91·LAL 110
Q4·30.0
Nick Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 91·LAL 110
Q4·41.2
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·44.7
Garrett Temple misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·54.6
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·57.5
Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·1:10
Drew Timme defensive rebound
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·1:13
Alijah Martin misses 13-foot fade away jump shot
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·1:28
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·1:31
Drew Timme misses 17-foot two point shot
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·1:59
Jonathan Mogbo makes 8-foot two point shot (Alijah Martin assists)
·
TOR 91·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Jamison Battle enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Garrett Temple enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Alijah Martin enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Bronny James enters the game for Luka Doncic
· ·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Drew Timme enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:17
Marcus Smart out of bounds bad pass turnover
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:21
Deandre Ayton defensive rebound
TOR 89·LAL 107
Q4·2:24
Jamal Shead misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 89·LAL 107

Betting line

LAL -2.5·O/U 226.5·TOR +114/LAL -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Toronto Raptors, 110–93.

LAL -2.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

LAL

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.8

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR