NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9HOU

10-35

110119

HOU

25-15

NBASun, Jan 18FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -13.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · #10

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 6pp · 4th Quarter · 10:02

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	30	20	9-17	—	2-3	-17	6	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	35	21	7-15	3-8	4-4	-16	3	4
D. QueenC · #22	27	15	7-12	1-3	—	-33	4	5
S. BeyG · #41	29	11	3-7	1-3	4-4	-22	4	2
J. FearsG · #0	10	2	1-5	0-2	—	-10	3	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	18	5	2-2	1-1	—	+8	3	0
Y. MissiC · #21	30	10	5-8	—	—	+22	6	3
J. PooleG · #3	25	13	5-11	2-5	1-3	-1	4	2
M. PeavyG · #14	22	7	3-5	1-2	—	+17	3	3
J. HawkinsG · #24	13	6	2-6	1-2	1-1	+7	3	2
Team		110	44-88	10-26	12-15		39	27
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, B. McGowens

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	36	18	5-18	1-8	7-8	+3	6	8
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	41	32	11-21	7-13	3-4	+17	8	0
S. AdamsC · #12	27	5	2-3	—	1-2	+10	10	2
A. SengunC · #28	33	21	9-15	—	3-5	+8	8	4
A. ThompsonG · #1	40	20	10-14	0-1	—	+21	8	6
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	8	3-5	1-2	1-1	+6	3	0
J. TateF · #8	8	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	17	4	1-3	1-3	1-2	-1	1	1
J. DavisonG · #4	4	0	0-2	0-2	—	-3	0	0
R. SheppardG · #15	18	11	4-9	3-7	—	-14	3	1
Team		119	45-90	13-36	16-22		47	22
DNP: J. Green, C. Capela, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

44-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-90

FG %

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

12-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 19

HOU128@

NO133

Jan 19

NO110@

HOU119today

Mar 14

NO105@

HOU107

Mar 29

HOU134@

NO102

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+57515%

HOU-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat NO 119-110. J. Smith Jr. paced them with 32 PTS, 8 REB, 0 AST. HOU outscored the other side 32-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 20 REB · 17 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST

GS 41

HOUstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 40 REB · 20 AST

GS 86

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 14

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	30	24	26	30	110
HOU	32	32	23	32	119

Period scoring

NO won 1 · HOU won 3

III 9

Jr. 10

Bey 6

Jr. 12

III 12

Sengun 9

Poole 11

Jr. 10

HOU

Shooting comparison

HOU

50%

44-88

50%

45-90

38%

10-26

3PT

36%

13-36

80%

12-15

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 110·HOU 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 110·HOU 119
Q4·2.6
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
NO 110·HOU 119
Q4·7.6
Josh Okogie misses free throw 2 of 2
NO 110·HOU 119
Q4·7.6
JD Davison enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
NO 110·HOU 119
Q4·7.6
Josh Okogie makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 110·HOU 119
Q4·7.6
Micah Peavy personal foul
NO 110·HOU 118
Q4·9.3
Jordan Poole makes 5-foot two point shot
·
NO 110·HOU 118
Q4·15.2
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 108·HOU 118
Q4·15.2
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
NO 108·HOU 117
Q4·15.2
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 108·HOU 117
Q4·15.2
Jordan Poole personal take foul
·
NO 108·HOU 116
Q4·16.3
Yves Missi personal take foul
NO 108·HOU 116
Q4·20.3
Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)
· ·
NO 108·HOU 116
Q4·22.4
Zion Williamson offensive rebound
NO 105·HOU 116
Q4·25.5
Trey Murphy III misses 28-foot three point jumper
NO 105·HOU 116
Q4·31.2
Micah Peavy defensive rebound
NO 105·HOU 116
Q4·32.6
Kevin Durant misses 11-foot two point shot
NO 105·HOU 116
Q4·35.7
Kevin Durant offensive rebound
NO 105·HOU 116
Q4·36.3
Kevin Durant misses alley oop layup
NO 105·HOU 116
Q4·44.7
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 1
NO 105·HOU 116
Q4·44.7
Alperen Sengun shooting foul
NO 104·HOU 116
Q4·44.7
Zion Williamson makes 2-foot layup (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
NO 104·HOU 116
Q4·55.1
Jordan Poole defensive rebound
·
NO 102·HOU 116
Q4·57.5
Trey Murphy III blocks Kevin Durant 's 11-foot pullup jump shot
·
NO 102·HOU 116
Q4·1:03
Jordan Poole bad pass turnover (Alperen Sengun steals)
· ·
NO 102·HOU 116
Q4·1:05
Kevin Durant makes 12-foot two point shot
NO 102·HOU 116
Q4·1:24
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
NO 102·HOU 114
Q4·1:25
Jordan Poole misses driving floating jump shot
·
NO 102·HOU 114
Q4·1:36
Yves Missi offensive rebound
NO 102·HOU 114

Betting line

HOU -13.5·O/U 232.5·NO +575/HOU -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off New Orleans Pelicans, 119–110.

NO +13.5 cashed (HOU won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Trey Murphy IIINO · F
DEFL2.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

HOU

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

25.1

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR