ORL
19-15
IND
6-28
ORL · top performer
Paolo Banchero
F · #5
29
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
IND · top performer
Andrew Nembhard
G · #2
19
Pts
4
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 27pp · 4th Quarter · 7.5
NBA · Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 29 | 12-21 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +2 | 10 | 4 | |
| 29 | 6 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 4-6 | -1 | 11 | 2 | |
| 33 | 18 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 3-3 | +2 | 7 | 6 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 2-3 | +2 | 3 | 3 | |
| 31 | 15 | 6-11 | 0-3 | 3-3 | +7 | 4 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 11 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 4-4 | +6 | 0 | 1 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 | — | +5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 9 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -14 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 14 | 6-7 | — | 2-2 | +3 | 9 | 3 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-3 | — | +3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 112 | 43-90 | 3-21 | 23-28 | 49 | 28 | ||
| DNP: O. Robinson, J. Howard | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 26 | 9-20 | 3-8 | 5-10 | -6 | 4 | 0 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -16 | 0 | 1 | |
| 31 | 19 | 9-15 | 1-5 | — | 0 | 4 | 7 | |
| 37 | 23 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 13-13 | -7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | — | — | — | -7 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-2 | — | -3 | 4 | 0 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -9 | 5 | 1 | |
| 26 | 8 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3-3 | +23 | 3 | 3 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1-4 | — | 2-2 | -2 | 1 | 8 | |
| 32 | 9 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | +10 | 10 | 0 | |
| 19 | 12 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +7 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 110 | 36-83 | 12-35 | 26-32 | 39 | 22 | ||
| DNP: E. Thompson, Q. Jackson, K. Jones, T. Peter | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
43
28
Ast
22
Team stats
ORL
Away
Stat
IND
Home
43-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-83
48
FG %
43
3-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-35
23-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-32
28
Assists
22
19
Turnovers
16
Season series
ORL leads series 1-0
ORL112@IND110todayIND127@ORL135IND128@ORL126Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ORL -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
229.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ORL-19266%IND+16038%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 4 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
229.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
ORL beat IND 112-110. P. Banchero paced them with 29 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. Paolo Banchero's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs ORL
Starters vs bench
production by unitORLstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 35 REB · 20 AST
GS 59
Bench(6)
33 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST
GS 26
INDstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST
GS 42
Bench(6)
42 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST
GS 37
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAndrew Nembhard · misses 18-foot fade away jump shot
Jalen Suggs · shooting foul
Paolo Banchero · makes driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 31 | 37 | 26 | 18 | 112 |
| IND | 28 | 38 | 29 | 15 | 110 |
Period scoring
ORL won 2 · IND won 2
Q1
Bane 8
Mathurin 12
Q2
Cain 11
Siakam 13
Q3
Banchero 8
Mathurin 9
Q4
Banchero 8
Nembhard 6
Shooting comparison
48%
43-90
FG
43%
36-83
14%
3-21
3PT
34%
12-35
82%
23-28
FT
81%
26-32
Play-by-play · 509 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 112·IND 110
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·IND 110
−9pp
- Q4·3.1
Pacers offensive team rebound
ORL 112·IND 110
+3pp
- Q4·3.1
Aaron Nesmith misses 31-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·IND 110
−12pp
- Q4·6.2
Pacers Full timeout
ORL 112·IND 110
- Q4·6.2
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
ORL 112·IND 110
−4pp
- Q4·7.5
Paolo Banchero misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
ORL 112·IND 110
+15pp
- Q4·7.5
Aaron Nesmith shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·IND 110
−15pp
- Q4·7.5
Paolo Banchero makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·IND 110
−27pp
- Q4·29.1
Anthony Black enters the game for Goga Bitadze
·
ORL 110·IND 110
- Q4·29.1
Magic Full timeout
ORL 110·IND 110
- Q4·29.1
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 110·IND 110
−5pp
- Q4·29.1
Goga Bitadze enters the game for Anthony Black
·
ORL 110·IND 109
- Q4·29.1
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 110·IND 109
+2pp
- Q4·29.1
Jalen Suggs shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·IND 108
+14pp
- Q4·32.3
Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
ORL 110·IND 108
+3pp
- Q4·34.8
Pascal Siakam blocks Desmond Bane 's 6-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 110·IND 108
+9pp
- Q4·49.2
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 110·IND 108
−4pp
- Q4·52.5
Andrew Nembhard misses 18-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·IND 108
−24pp
- Q4·1:03
Desmond Bane personal foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·IND 108
+22pp
- Q4·1:13
Desmond Bane makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·IND 108
−14pp
- Q4·1:20
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
ORL 108·IND 108
−2pp
- Q4·1:22
Bennedict Mathurin misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·IND 108
−6pp
- Q4·1:41
Micah Potter defensive rebound
ORL 108·IND 108
+2pp
- Q4·1:42
Paolo Banchero misses layupBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·IND 108
+6pp
- Q4·1:57
Jalen Suggs enters the game for Jamal Cain
·
ORL 108·IND 108
- Q4·1:57
Magic offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·IND 108
−7pp
- Q4·1:59
Anthony Black misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·IND 108
+7pp
- Q4·2:16
Anthony Black defensive rebound
ORL 108·IND 108
−2pp
- Q4·2:18
Bennedict Mathurin misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·IND 108
−7pp
Betting line
ORL -4.5·O/U 229.5·ORL -192/IND +160
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 112–110. Decided by 2.
IND +4.5 cashed (ORL won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 7.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
- Andrew NembhardIND · GTOUCHES87.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · GDEFL3.797
Anthony BlackORL · GDEFL3.797
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · ORL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs ORL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Desmond BaneORL18.8± 7.4high
Rebounds
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
- Micah PotterIND6.1± 4.5high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- T.J. McConnellIND6.2± 3.1high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
ORL
league avg
IND
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶53.3%
45.9%
FG%
47.0
45.8%
114.2
PPG
114.9
112.4
26.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.7
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8