NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DET

BOS

26-16

103104

DET

31-10

NBAMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesDET wins series 3-1VegasDET -2.5

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

17.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 41pp · 1st Quarter · 7:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	27	16	6-9	4-7	—	+2	5	1
N. QuetaC · #88	28	10	1-2	—	8-10	+15	8	1
D. WhiteG · #9	38	4	1-11	0-6	2-3	+9	9	5
J. BrownG · #7	39	32	11-28	2-8	8-10	+2	11	2
P. PritchardG · #11	34	17	5-8	3-6	4-5	+2	3	3
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	2	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
L. GarzaC · #52	15	10	3-8	2-5	2-2	-8	4	0
A. SimonsG · #4	25	9	4-11	1-6	—	-13	3	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	15	3	1-3	1-3	—	-3	1	1
J. WalshG · #27	16	2	1-2	—	—	-7	1	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		103	33-83	13-41	24-30		45	13
DNP: C. Boucher, J. Minott

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	35	25	11-20	3-8	—	0	3	1
D. RobinsonF · #55	32	15	5-13	5-11	—	-4	3	2
J. DurenC · #0	31	18	8-12	—	2-5	-4	9	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	40	16	4-17	0-4	8-10	+1	3	14
A. ThompsonG · #9	28	7	3-6	—	1-1	-6	7	2
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	21	8	2-5	0-2	4-4	+8	5	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	12	3	1-4	0-1	1-1	+3	4	1
J. GreenG · #31	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	+4	1	0
C. LeVertG · #8	17	2	1-6	0-4	—	+1	3	1
J. IveyG · #23	17	7	2-3	2-3	1-2	+2	3	2
Team		104	38-88	11-35	17-23		41	24
DNP: P. Reed, B. Klintman, M. Sasser, C. Lanier, D. Jenkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

DET

Home

33-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-88

FG %

13-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-35

24-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 3-1

Oct 26

BOS113@

DET119

Nov 26

DET114@

BOS117

Dec 16

DET112@

BOS105

Jan 20

BOS103@

DET104today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+11447%

DET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -2.5↗SpreadBet DET -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat BOS 104-103. C. Cunningham led with 16 PTS, 3 REB, 14 AST. DET outscored the other side 33-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 36 REB · 12 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

24 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST

GS 11

DETstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS1st Quarter · 7:54 · 13-7

+41pp→ 62% WP

Jaylen Brown · makes free throw 1 of 2

DET4th Quarter · 0.0 · 103-104

+20pp→ 100% WP

Jaylen Brown · misses 14-foot fade away jump shot

BOS3rd Quarter · 23.5 · 82-84

+41pp→ 41% WP

Jaden Ivey · lost ball turnover (Luka Garza steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	29	22	31	21	103
DET	26	33	25	20	104

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · DET won 1

Brown 12

Duren 9

Brown 6

Stewart 42

Pritchard 10

Thompson 14

Brown 10

Cunningham 16

BOS

DET

Shooting comparison

BOS

DET

40%

33-83

43%

38-88

32%

13-41

3PT

31%

11-35

80%

24-30

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 103·DET 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 103·DET 104
Q4·0.0
Celtics offensive team rebound
BOS 103·DET 104
Q4·0.0
Jaylen Brown misses 14-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 103·DET 104
+20pp
Q4·4.4
Anfernee Simons enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 103·DET 104
Q4·4.4
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
BOS 103·DET 104
Q4·4.4
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 103·DET 104
Q4·4.4
Celtics defensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
BOS 103·DET 104
+15pp
Q4·8.5
Cade Cunningham misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
BOS 103·DET 104
−4pp
Q4·22.5
Duncan Robinson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BOS 103·DET 104
+11pp
Q4·24.8
Tobias Harris misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BOS 103·DET 104
−9pp
Q4·45.1
Jaylen Brown makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Derrick White assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 103·DET 104
−8pp
Q4·58.0
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 101·DET 104
−2pp
Q4·1:00
Cade Cunningham misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 101·DET 104
−6pp
Q4·1:22
Jaylen Brown makes 2-foot two point shot
BOS 101·DET 104
−5pp
Q4·1:37
Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 99·DET 104
+14pp
Q4·1:54
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
BOS 99·DET 101
Q4·1:58
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 99·DET 101
+10pp
Q4·1:58
Celtics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
BOS 99·DET 101
+6pp
Q4·1:58
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 99·DET 101
+7pp
Q4·1:58
Jalen Duren shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 99·DET 101
−13pp
Q4·2:21
Cade Cunningham makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 99·DET 101
+8pp
Q4·2:44
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 99·DET 99
+7pp
Q4·2:44
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 98·DET 99
−15pp
Q4·2:44
Celtics Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
BOS 97·DET 99
+13pp
Q4·2:44
Duncan Robinson personal foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 97·DET 99
−12pp
Q4·2:58
Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
BOS 97·DET 99
+4pp
Q4·3:10
Jaylen Brown loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 97·DET 96
+14pp
Q4·3:10
Pistons offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
BOS 97·DET 96
+6pp
Q4·3:10
Tobias Harris misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BOS 97·DET 96
−7pp

Betting line

DET -2.5·O/U 223.5·BOS +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Boston Celtics, 104–103. It came down to the final possession.

BOS +2.5 cashed (DET won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

DET

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR