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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6KC
MIL

MIL

6-2

2
8
KC

KC

4-4

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
12,732 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

KC no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.1%47.1%KC NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

MIL 2 · KC 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0020000002
KC020006008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    85
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    88
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    25
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 93
    104
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    104
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasKC -115

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Milwaukee Brewers, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

KC +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

RF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL6-2
2
8
KC4-4
MIL6-2·KC4-4
MIL

MIL

6-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44111002
SPRINT28.586
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT29.798
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000000
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-44000001
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-44000002
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.790
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT29.294
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-33000012
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT28.790
B. LockridgeB. LockridgeLF
0-22000000
Team5-33332520312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. HendersonL. Henderson★SP
2.0322130
B. SproatB. SproatSP
3.2444341
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
0.1220200
D. HallD. HallRP
2.0100120
Team8.01086791
KC

KC

4-4

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
3-55131000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000013
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000011
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-22211120
SPRINT241
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000011
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
2-44220001
SPRINT27.765
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-33122010
SPRINT27.457
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33111011
SPRINT27.867
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33111002
Team10-31318106179
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
5.0422270
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0000000
E. MorganE. MorganRP
3.0100150
Team9.05223120

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

2

Runs

8

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 3MILMIL0@KCKC0
Apr 4MILMIL5@KCKC2
Apr 4MILMIL2@KCKC8today
Apr 5MILMIL8@KCKC5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 3MILMIL0@KCKC0
Apr 4MILMIL5@KCKC2
Apr 4MILMIL2@KCKC8today
Apr 5MILMIL8@KCKC5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-10551%
KCKC-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MILMIL
S. Frelick

S. Frelick

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

KCKC
S. Perez

S. Perez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat MIL 8-2. Jensen's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

KC vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+21pp→ 67% WP

Jensen · doubled to right, India scored and Perez scored.

MILTop 3rd Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 49% WP

Turang · tripled to left, Hamilton scored.

KCBottom 6th Inning · 2-3
+19pp→ 67% WP

Perez · homered to center (417 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0020000002
KC02000600—8

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Jensen 2

2
0

Inn 3

Turang 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
6

Inn 6

Perez 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
KC

Play-by-play · 612 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  2. T9

    Ortiz lined out to left.

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  5. T9

    Eli Morgan pitches to Joey Ortiz

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  6. T9

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  7. T9

    Perkins struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  12. T9

    Eli Morgan pitches to Blake Perkins

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  13. T9

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  14. T9

    Hamilton struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  19. T9

    Eli Morgan pitches to David Hamilton

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 2·KC 8

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 2·KC 8

  22. B8

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  23. B8

    Pasquantino popped out to third.

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  24. B8

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  25. B8

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  26. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 2·KC 8

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

8

5

Hits

10

1

Errors

1

8

TB

15

0

HR

1

3

BB

7

12

K

9

13

LOB

15

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·MIL -105/KC -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

KC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    45.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.4%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.7%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.