MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIL

MIL

7-2

4-5

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

14,584 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

KC no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.5%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.2%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

KC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.4± 5.2low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.4high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 3.2high
Brice TurangMIL
2.1± 2.6high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
0.9± 1.3high
Jake BauersMIL
0.9± 1.4high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low
Robert GasserMIL
2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.733

OPS

◀

.717

.695

.339

OBP

◀

.319

.317

5.31

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.51

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 8 · KC 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	8
KC	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Turang2B	.303	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
L. Rengifo3B	.217	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.300	3	1	2	2	0	2	0
C. YelichDH	.353	5	2	2	1	0	0	1
G. SanchezDH	.308	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
L. MatosRF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
B. LockridgeLF	.348	2	1	1	1	0	2	0
B. PerkinsCF	.118	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
J. OrtizSS	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Bauers1B	.233	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.318	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	8	10	8	1	8	11

Player

.303

.217

.300

.353

.308

.250

.348

.118

.269

.233

.318

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. HarrisonSP	5.1	3	2	2	2	6	90
G. AndersonRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	12
A. UribeRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	14
A. ZerpaRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	23
T. MegillRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	9	151

Player

5.1

0.2

0.1

1.2

1.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.333	5	1	2	3	1	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.242	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.206	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.206	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. MarteRF	.200	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. India2B	.208	1	2	0	0	0	2	0
N. Loftin2B	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	9	5	1	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BubicSP	5.0	4	4	4	3	8	96
N. MearsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	14
M. StrahmRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	29
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	16
L. ErcegRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	30
Team	9.0	10	8	8	8	11	185

Team

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

KC vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.