Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 23, 2026

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

16-9

BOS

9-16

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

36,565 attended

Line movement

44 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BOS no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.3%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.4%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low
Carlos RodonNYY
5.9± 2.3low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.9high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.3± 2.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.2± 3.2high
Ben RiceNYY
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Jose CaballeroNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jake BennettBOS
2.2± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BOS

.768

OPS

◀

.718

.690

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.311

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.85

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · BOS 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	4
BOS	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Rosario3B	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. JudgeRF	.242	4	0	1	1	0	1	3
B. Rice1B	.311	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
G. StantonDH	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. GrichukDH	.172	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. GrishamCF	.167	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.188	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.250	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.164	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.271	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.143	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	4	10	4	1	2	17

Player

.269

.242

.311

.253

.172

.167

.188

.250

.164

.271

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	8.0	4	2	1	1	5	96
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	4	2	1	1	5	107

Player

C. SchlittlerSP

8.0

D. BednarRP

1.0

Team

9.0

107

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.197	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YoshidaDH	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. StorySS	.186	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.203	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.141	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.245	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
Team		30	2	4	2	1	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	6.0	3	1	1	1	11	93
D. CoulombeRP	0.2	3	3	3	0	2	18
G. WeissertRP	0.1	2	0	0	1	1	12
T. SamaniegoRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	23
R. WatsonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	10	4	4	2	17	158

Team

NYY

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

BOS vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BOS vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.