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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TB
NYY

NYY

8-7

4
5
TB

TB

8-7

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
20,796 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0TB SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL48.9%40.9%TB NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

NYY 4 · TB 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0000002024
TB120000115

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    104
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    83
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    107
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 93
    103
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 93
    226
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    106
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasNYY -136

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off New York Yankees, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

TB +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Amed Rosario

Amed Rosario

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Ben Williamson

Ben Williamson

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY8-7
4
5
TB8-7
NYY8-7·TB8-7
NYY

NYY

8-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000001
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44220002
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33212111
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-22000001
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
0-22000000
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-44010001
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33000001
G. StantonG. StantonDH
0-11001000
SPRINT23.81
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
1-11010000
A. WellsA. WellsC
0-11000010
Team7-3333474128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
5.0733180
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
1.0211010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000000
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0211000
Team8.01155190
TB

TB

8-7

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
3-44231000
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-33021001
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-44000003
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-33011010
SPRINT25.716
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.278
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-33110000
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-33001001
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
2-33121001
SPRINT27.765
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-22000001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson2B
1-11010000
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-22000000
Team11-32325115019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
6.0100070
C. SulserC. SulserRP
0.1222100
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.2100000
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
1.0322111
Team9.0744281

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    85 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      59%·97.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      18%·93.7 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.5 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      7%·84.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      1%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Yarbrough
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      40%·72.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FC
      82%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Headrick
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.9 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    76 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      36%·90.5 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      5%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Englert
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      52%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·77.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Sulser
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      53%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      27%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      7%·78.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Apr 10NYYNYY3@TBTB5
Apr 11NYYNYY4@TBTB5
Apr 12NYYNYY4@TBTB5today

Season series

TB leads series 3-0

Apr 10NYYNYY3@TBTB5
Apr 11NYYNYY4@TBTB5
Apr 12NYYNYY4@TBTB5today
May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2
Jul 6NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 7NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 8NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 9NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 23TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 24TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-13658%
TBTB+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 7th Inning

NYYNYY
A. Rosario

A. Rosario

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

TBTB
B. Williamson

B. Williamson

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

TB beat NYY 5-4.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+16pp→ 87% WP

Simpson · tripled to right.

TBTop 8th Inning · 2-4
+12pp→ 92% WP

Caballero · grounded into double play, third to second to first, McMahon out at second.

TBTop 9th Inning · 4-5
+12pp→ 100% WP

McMahon · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0000002024
TB12000011—5

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TB

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

13

TB

15

1

HR

0

2

BB

1

8

K

9

9

LOB

14

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYY -136/TB +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

TB vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · TB won 3

0
1

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Palacios 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
1

Inn 7

Bellinger 1

Caminero 1

0
1

Inn 8

Walls 1

2

Inn 9

Judge 2

NYY
TB

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  2. T9

    McMahon grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

    +12pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  4. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Ryan McMahon

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  5. T9

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  6. T9

    Wells intentionally walked.

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

    −2pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  11. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Austin Wells

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  12. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  13. T9

    Rosario doubled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

    −7pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  16. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Amed Rosario

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  17. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  18. T9

    Chisholm Jr. grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

    +6pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  20. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  21. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  22. T9

    Bellinger struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

    +8pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  27. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Cody Bellinger

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  28. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  29. T9

    Judge homered to right center (415 feet), Rice scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

    −9pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

Player projections

TB vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    44.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.9%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175