• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL
TOR

TOR

29-29

0
0
CHW

CHW

30-27

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 0 · CHW 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Apr 2·Final

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Postponed
TOR29-29
0
0
CHW30-27
TOR29-29·CHW30-27
TOR

TOR

29-29

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
CHW

CHW

30-27

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR

Season series

Apr 2TORTOR0@CHWCHW0today
Apr 3TORTOR4@CHWCHW5
Apr 4TORTOR3@CHWCHW6
Apr 5TORTOR0@CHWCHW3
Jul 17CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming
Jul 18CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming
Jul 19CHWCHW@TORTORupcoming

Player projections

CHW vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    37.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    36.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.0%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 91
    120
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 90
    144
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 90
    140
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 88
    143
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 86
    123
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 86
    196
    3(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs