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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6LAD
LAD

LAD

27-18

6
0
LAA

LAA

16-29

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,887 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

LAA no-vig %

32.5%

open 32.5%

+2.0-0.5LAA SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL36.5%28.0%LAA NO-VIG %May 14, 9 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 6 · LAA 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0004020006
LAA0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+26.3pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

LAA

★ best
+1000DraftKings

edge +26.3pp · implied 12.1%

BookLADLAABest edge
DraftKings-193+1000★+26.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 92
    1910
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 89
    54
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 88
    144
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 88
    53
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 88
    159
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 88
    1915
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -193

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD27-18
6
0
LAA16-29
LAD27-18·LAA16-29
LAD

LAD

27-18

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44010012
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-55000002
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44110000
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33100010
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44113101
SPRINT28.175
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
2-33221110
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-44122100
SPRINT28.381
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
0-44000002
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44010000
Team8-3535686337
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. KleinW. Klein★RP
2.0100020
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0000020
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0000010
W. MillsW. MillsRP
1.0000110
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.0000100
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0100030
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000120
C. BarnesC. BarnesRP
1.0000100
Team9.02004110
LAA

LAA

16-29

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT26.632
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33000011
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-44000002
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000002
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-11010020
SPRINT27.148
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.251
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-22000000
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-33000001
B. TeodosioB. TeodosioLF
0-22000001
S. RiveroS. RiveroC
0-11000001
Team2-29290200411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
6.0766243
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.0000020
R. JohnsonR. JohnsonSP
1.0100110
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0000000
Team9.0866373

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • W. Mills
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SL
      68%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·89.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      16%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      18%·84.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Barnes
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·82.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·77.3 mph·— whiff

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

2

6

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

May 16LADLAD6@LAALAA0today
May 17LADLAD15@LAALAA2
May 17LADLAD10@LAALAA1

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

May 16LADLAD6@LAALAA0today
May 17LADLAD15@LAALAA2
May 17LADLAD10@LAALAA1
Jun 6LAALAA@LADLADupcoming
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

↗1.5pt· 3.6h

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 3.6h

Moneyline

LADLAD-19366%
LAALAA+15839%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 4th Inning

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

W. Klein

W. Klein

RP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 H

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Kochanowicz

J. Kochanowicz

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat LAA 6-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+16pp→ 89% WP

Pages · homered to center (407 feet), Smith scored and Tucker scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0004020006
LAA0000000000

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · LAA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Pages 3

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
LAA

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  3. B9

    Teodosio flied out to right.

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  6. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Bryce Teodosio

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  7. B9

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  8. B9

    Neto walked.

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  15. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  16. B9

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  17. B9

    Adell grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  21. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  22. B9

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  23. B9

    Soler grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  26. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Jorge Soler

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  27. B9

    Barnes relieved Dreyer

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 6·LAA 0

  30. T9

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

0

8

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

18

TB

2

3

HR

0

3

BB

4

7

K

11

7

LOB

10

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9.5·LAD -193/LAA +158

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

+194

Close price

+188

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

33.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    35.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    32.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.6%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.