Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 24, 2026

FINAL+1ATL

11-18-1

ATL

21-7-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

5,879 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Bryce ElderATL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.7high
Junior CamineroTB
1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.7± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.1± 1.3high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATL

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.720

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.52

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.20

WHIP

1.31

1.21

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

TB 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
ATL	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Aranda1B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.320	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.321	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. DeLucaRF	.263	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. FeducciaC	.088	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WilliamsSS	.294	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. JamesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. AntunezSS	1.000	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
I. BautistaOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GrayC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. FlemmingSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. GuerreroOF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. SummerhillOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FlewellingC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. PierceSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	6	2	0	3	8

Player

.400

.125

.241

.273

.320

.321

.263

.088

.294

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.500

.400

.000

.250

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
G. CleavingerRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	18
G. Gill HillSP	3.1	6	3	3	0	2	49
T. CummingsRP	2.0	3	0	0	2	0	40
D. EdingtonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19
Team	8.0	11	3	3	4	6	0

Player

1.0

0.2

3.1

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.294	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.349	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.320	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.357	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.400	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
O. Albies2B	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.270	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Harris IICF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. DubonSS	.311	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.429	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. BrookmanC	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. FarmerDH	.311	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.238	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Wisely2B	.324	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ClohisyCF	.217	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. McIntyreOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.364	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Verdung2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	3	11	3	1	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	5.1	4	2	2	3	4	78
R. FreyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
D. LeeRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	9
T. KinleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	5
R. SuarezRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	15
B. AbeytaSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	6	2	2	3	8	0

Team

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs TB.