Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 24, 2026

FINAL+5CLE

CLE

16-14-1

105

ARI

15-15-1

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

13,236 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.8± 2.5medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Joey CantilloCLE
4.9± 3.3medium

Hits

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 0.9high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.2± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 2.0high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 3.0high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.9± 1.4low
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.0low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 2.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

ARI

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.692

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.307

3.94

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.22

3.76

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 10 · ARI 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	1	10
ARI	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinezLF	.356	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.302	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.182	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.282	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.289	1	2	1	2	1	1	0
D. FryRF	.162	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. KayfusLF	.244	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. AriasSS	.317	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. ChourioCF	.304	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. CesariniOF	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Benjamin3B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Fernandez2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. SchubartOF	.500	2	2	2	3	1	1	0
R. Velazquez1B	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. NunezC	.231	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. BarstadC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LaVioletteOF	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
D. CurleySS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		41	10	15	10	3	4	9

Player

.356

.302

.182

.282

.289

.162

.244

.317

.304

.167

.273

.000

.500

.313

.231

.200

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	4.2	6	4	3	1	6	76
Z. PettyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. HerrinRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	11
R. CarverSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
Z. MorehouseP	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	20
C. SchuelkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
A. TullochSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	9.0	8	5	4	4	8	140

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

0.2

1.0

0.1

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. Vargas1B	.340	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarrollRF	.105	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. PerdomoSS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Arenado3B	.350	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. SmithDH	.318	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Santana1B	.167	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.222	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	.323	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LawlarLF	.333	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. RodriguezSS	.143	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. BarrosaCF	.311	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. TawaLF	.327	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. Valdez3B	.000	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. McLaughlin3B	.304	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.302	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. DixSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JonesCF	.286	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaC	.179	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	8	5	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. SorokaSP	3.1	10	6	6	2	5	80
H. DurkeUN	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. CrantonUN	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	4
S. GiestingSP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	19
A. HoffmannRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
J. MorilloRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	13
S. SantanaRP	1.0	2	3	3	2	2	36
N. SavinoSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	9.0	15	10	10	4	9	163

Team

CLE

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs CLE.