Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+2BAL

BAL

13-13-3

WSH

14-11-3

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

9,329 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Kyle BradishBAL
6.1± 3.6medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.2± 3.2medium

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.1± 1.0high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.3± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 2.1high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
0.9± 1.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.0high
Samuel BasalloBAL
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

WSH

.718

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.319

OBP

.319

4.61

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.28

4.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.69

1.37

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 2 · WSH 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.207	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.268	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CowserRF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.302	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Mayo3B	.378	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Alexander3B	.263	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.314	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarreroSS	.105	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.295	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.160	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.391	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. RobertsonLF	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.083	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. TaverasCF	.205	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. Ramos3B	.316	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FabianCF	.063	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	2	5	2	1	3	9

Player

.207

.333

.268

.429

.222

.302

.378

.263

.314

.105

.295

.160

.391

.182

.083

.205

.316

.233

.063

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	5.0	3	0	0	0	5	73
C. BassittSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	35
Y. CanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
D. EnnsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	3	0	0	0	9	133

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Nunez2B	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.213	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.189	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.128	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.158	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.077	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MadeSS	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WiemerRF	.150	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Romero Jr.C	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. House3B	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Chaparro1B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	3	0	0	0	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. PoulinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
C. HenryRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	22
A. GranilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
K. WaldichukRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
B. LordRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	25
G. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
H. PowellRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	20
C. PerezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
C. BeeterRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	9	126

Team

BAL

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs BAL.