Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+7SD

SEA

11-19-1

310

15-15-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

6,786 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.2± 1.3medium
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 2.0high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 1.6high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

.695

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.313

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.02

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

3.72

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SEA 3 · SD 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
SD	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.413	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. RaleighC	.250	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.429	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.273	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.150	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. GarverC	.192	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Rivas3B	.209	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Bliss2B	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. St. Laurent3B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. MckeithanC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.283	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. DickersonOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. RomeroSS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. WashingtonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. FelizCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CanzoneDH	.321	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. TaurekOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. O'Brien2B	1.000	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
F. CelestenSS	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rodden2B	.342	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	8	3	1	4	12

Player

.413

.250

.429

.167

.273

.150

.192

.209

.190

.400

.000

.283

.000

.500

.000

.000

.321

.000

1.000

.375

.342

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	5.0	4	1	1	1	5	76
M. BrashRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	0	18
C. VargasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
C. HintzUN	0.1	0	4	4	2	0	22
R. LumpkinRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	1	17
Team	8.0	7	10	9	5	7	145

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.229	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.279	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.286	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.395	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.306	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.275	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. FabianOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. WellsOF	.750	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. Fountain1B	.500	2	2	1	2	1	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. VerdugoSS	.000	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
S. Song2B	.235	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Dungan2B	.269	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. JacksonUN	.083	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.298	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.296	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.206	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. SalasC	.167	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
R. Sanabria1B	.333	2	1	1	4	1	0	0
Team		31	10	7	9	2	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. HartRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	20
G. MarquezSP	4.2	4	1	1	2	8	81
M. CastroRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	7
J. AdamRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	18
D. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	8	3	3	4	12	153

Team

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs SEA.