Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+3ATL

ATL

20-7-2

PIT

17-13

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

4,620 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.4± 3.0high
Brandon LowePIT
2.2± 1.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Brandon LowePIT
0.9± 1.3high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.3high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

PIT

.720

OPS

.718

▶

.755

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.76

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.14

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 5 · PIT 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	5
PIT	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.267	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.394	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. Olson1B	.333	3	2	2	2	2	0	1
A. Riley3B	.366	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Harris IICF	.263	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
O. Albies2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. WhiteRF	.406	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. HeimC	.188	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. DubonSS	.302	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. MaciasOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OlsavskySS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Compton1B	.133	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. ConleySS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. HartmanOF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JonesSS	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. WorkingerLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BurgessC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. EspinozaSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	7	4	4	3	9

Player

.267

.394

.333

.366

.263

.200

.406

.188

.302

.250

.000

.133

.333

.143

.167

.333

.250

.273

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FuentesRP	4.2	2	1	1	1	1	65
S. StricklandRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	6
J. PayampsRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	27
A. MolinaRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	1	35
Team	9.0	6	2	2	2	4	0

Player

4.2

0.1

2.0

2.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.370	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.139	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. Gonzales3B	.364	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.161	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. PolancoOF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Yorke3B	.271	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. MangumLF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.139	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. RyndersSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. AlfonzoC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Castillo3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Herrera3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	6	2	0	2	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. FulmerRP	3.0	4	2	2	0	2	35
M. ClevingerRP	2.2	2	3	2	1	3	53
J. FloresP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. BarcoRP	2.1	1	0	0	2	3	48
J. MeisSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	7	5	4	3	9	0

Team

ATL

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs ATL.