Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+7TB

11-17-1

PHI

10-17-2

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

7,449 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.9± 3.6medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.8± 3.3high
Junior CamineroTB
2.7± 3.7high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.0high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 2.0high
J.T. RealmutoPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.2± 2.0medium
Alan RangelPHI
2.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

PHI

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.301

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.38

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.08

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 7 · PHI 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	7
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.394	4	0	4	3	0	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.220	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.348	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
J. FraleyRF	.333	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
N. FortesC	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.250	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. WilliamsSS	.281	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.364	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Monzon3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. GonzalezSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HujsakOF	.167	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. PalmaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezOF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Martinez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GillenOF	.111	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Palacios2B	.136	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JonesOF	.100	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		37	7	11	7	2	7	8

Player

.394

.220

.290

.348

.333

.250

.250

.281

.364

.000

.500

.167

.000

.333

.000

.000

.111

.136

.100

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MatzSP	5.0	4	0	0	1	4	71
B. BakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
H. BiggeRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	17
N. BealRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	17
Team	9.0	5	0	0	3	11	136

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

1.1

Team

9.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.313	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.310	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.366	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.275	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.179	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Sosa2B	.323	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. JimenezRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MooreCF	.194	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. MarchanC	.206	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. HumphreysOF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. De La CruzOF	.326	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CairoSS	.194	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. PegueroSS	.136	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	0	5	0	0	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	5.0	7	2	2	2	6	88
J. BowlanRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	23
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	19
B. KellerRP	1.0	1	2	2	2	0	22
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	11	7	7	7	8	168

Team

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs TB.