New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+9CHC

NYY

18-12

615

CHC

14-16

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

14,950 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 0.9high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.1± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.3± 1.8high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 3.4medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.8± 2.5medium
David PetersonCHC
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

CHC

.749

OPS

◀

.718

.736

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.93

Runs / G

4.50

4.92

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.24

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

NYY 6 · CHC 15 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	6
CHC	1	0	6	3	0	5	0	0	15

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Goldschmidt1B	.375	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
A. JudgeRF	.316	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.222	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
G. StantonDH	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.259	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.348	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. GrishamCF	.171	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.214	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. WellsC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. JonesRF	.385	2	2	2	3	2	0	0
M. SchuemannSS	.303	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
Y. FernandezRF	.192	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. EllisCF	.115	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Cabrera3B	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.227	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
P. DeJong3B	.175	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HenryC	.222	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	13	6	3	4	7

Player

.375

.316

.222

.286

.259

.348

.171

.214

.200

.385

.303

.192

.091

.115

.222

.227

.175

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. LagrangeSP	2.2	9	8	8	2	4	66
W. BrianRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	10
C. WinquestRP	1.2	2	2	2	1	1	30
Y. De los SantosRP	1.0	5	3	3	0	2	24
K. CastroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
O. BidoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	8.0	18	15	15	4	11	157

Player

2.2

0.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.389	3	3	3	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.244	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.500	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
I. HappLF	.200	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. KellyC	.378	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
M. ConfortoDH	.324	4	2	3	4	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ShawRF	.320	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
D. CarlsonLF	.304	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Kingery3B	.208	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Alvarez1B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. PreciadoSS	.167	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. De LeonCF	.250	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. BallesterosDH	.366	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Bethancourt1B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. MaderaSS	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. DelgadoLF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. BetencourtOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	15	18	15	3	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	5.0	7	2	2	2	5	81
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	15
H. HarveyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
J. WebbRP	0.2	4	3	3	0	0	20
Z. LeighRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	11
Team	9.0	13	6	6	4	7	147

Team

NYY

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs NYY.