Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+3MIN

MIN

10-18-1

BOS

13-15

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

8,774 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Caleb DurbinBOS
2.3± 2.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Trevor LarnachMIN
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

BOS

.734

OPS

◀

.718

.697

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.86

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 9 · BOS 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	2	1	9
BOS	0	0	2	0	3	0	1	0	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Clemens1B	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. LeeSS	.308	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.178	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
V. CaratiniC	.132	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. OutmanCF	.227	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
R. Lewis3B	.143	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.355	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. GraySS	.209	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
O. ArciaSS	.273	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.357	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. Salas2B	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. FragozaOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BassRF	.667	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. FerrerRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. OlivarC	.286	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. HernandezLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Doncon3B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. GenthSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	9	13	9	2	3	10

Player

.263

.308

.178

.132

.227

.143

.355

.209

.273

.357

.429

.000

.667

.000

.286

.000

.286

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	4.1	10	4	4	3	3	81
E. OrzeRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	11
A. BandaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	19
J. TopaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	24
C. SandsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	7
L. QuinonesSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	15	6	6	5	7	153

Player

4.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.296	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.409	4	1	3	0	0	1	1
J. DuranLF	.407	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
W. Contreras1B	.375	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.174	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
C. Durbin3B	.356	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
M. Mayer2B	.194	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.394	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
C. WongC	.129	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
D. Ortiz3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. FernandezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. WardCF	.378	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.293	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Capra3B	.067	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. YutenRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. FerminOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BravoSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. BaezC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	6	16	6	2	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OviedoSP	3.1	6	6	6	2	3	84
M. SansoneRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	17
J. SlatenRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
D. CoulombeRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	20
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	16
M. CarlsonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19
Team	9.0	13	9	9	3	10	182

Team

MIN

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs MIN.