Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+7CLE

CLE

15-14-1

ARI

15-14-1

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

15,913 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.8± 2.5medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Joey CantilloCLE
4.9± 3.3medium

Hits

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 0.9high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.2± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 2.0high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 3.0high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.9± 1.4low
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.0low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 2.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

ARI

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.692

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.307

3.94

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.22

3.76

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 7 · ARI 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	2	0	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	7
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.214	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. DeLauterRF	.459	2	3	2	2	2	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.286	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.173	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.320	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.308	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. SchneemannCF	.270	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. KayfusLF	.225	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. SilvaLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.357	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.243	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
A. HedgesC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. PeeblesC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. FryRF	.147	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. FairchildRF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MooneySS	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DeversSS	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RodriguezSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	10	6	3	5	7

Player

.214

.459

.286

.173

.320

.308

.270

.225

.300

.000

.357

.243

.250

.333

.147

.222

.267

.364

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	4.0	1	0	0	2	2	57
C. SmithRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	23
H. StanleyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. CantilloSP	4.0	1	0	0	0	6	52
Team	9.0	2	0	0	3	9	136

Player

4.0

0.2

0.1

4.0

Team

9.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.211	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. CarrollRF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. PerdomoSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Arenado3B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. SmithDH	.310	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Santana1B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.345	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LawlarLF	.326	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. Vargas1B	.370	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaC	.192	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Valdez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Serretti3B	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.311	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. McLaughlin3B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.326	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JonesCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	0	2	0	0	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	2.0	4	5	5	2	1	52
I. CampbellRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
K. GinkelRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	12
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	27
G. CarrilloSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
C. AndersonSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	10	7	7	5	7	158

Team

CLE

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs CLE.